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Originally Posted By: Mick Rich
Out of interest, is there any heli-skiing in Japan?? wakaranai

Not heli skiing as such. More like a heli lift. Tsugaike and Kagura were running something this year. There is another in Niigata that escapes my memory.
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What dates are the effected by the higher prices for the Chinese New Year acpowman?

 

Chinese New Year is last week of Jan, some companies will just jack prices up for the 10 days over this week, others have extended the peak rates from x-mas till end of CNY.

 

Accommodation providers in Niseko feel the demand will be same as usual, personally i think they've got their head up their arse, they obviously haven't learned their lesson from the post GFC year. Guess we'll see as the year goes on.

I think GN is on the money, if bookings are weak at the end of the earlybird period they will just extend by a month.

 

The AUD is definitely looking good against the USD and CAD, but it's gone from 78 up to 90 yen in the past few weeks with no signs of it stopping, so Japan is looking pretty cheap too.

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If Niseko accommodation providers think there will be hardly any impact on numbers next season then I think they are dreaming. I reckon they'll be lucky to get more than 50% of what came this season. Chinese New Year is quite early next year falling within the last of week of Jan. This is really not going to help either as usually it falls in Feb and helps spread out the period of really high occupancy.

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You reckon as low as that Go Native?

 

It will sure be interesting to see how things developing this time round. A lot is really going to depend on good news (or otherwise) appearing I suppose.

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Originally Posted By: acpowman
I think overall numbers will be around 85 - 90 % myself, but yeah will def depend on the news getting delivered by the western media.


Or rather less cynically, just 'the news'.
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Originally Posted By: acpowman
I think overall numbers will be around 85 - 90 % myself, but yeah will def depend on the news getting delivered by the western media.


I think the impact is going to be a hell of a lot more than just 10-15%. I think the SE Asian market will be hit very hard and will probably account for at least a 10-15% drop alone.
The biggest market segment in Niseko now would be families. At least this is the segment that is the most lucrative. And I think the number of families coming to Japan will drop dramatically. It's one thing for a few mates to agree they don't much care about any perceived risks but it's quite another with kids involved.

I know on skiing forums like this you will often get a reasonably positive outlook of people saying they will return but the vast bulk of the skiing market don't contribute to skiing forums (or any forums).
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Originally Posted By: Go Native
Originally Posted By: acpowman
I think overall numbers will be around 85 - 90 % myself, but yeah will def depend on the news getting delivered by the western media.


I think the impact is going to be a hell of a lot more than just 10-15%. I think the SE Asian market will be hit very hard and will probably account for at least a 10-15% drop alone.
The biggest market segment in Niseko now would be families. At least this is the segment that is the most lucrative. And I think the number of families coming to Japan will drop dramatically. It's one thing for a few mates to agree they don't much care about any perceived risks but it's quite another with kids involved.

I know on skiing forums like this you will often get a reasonably positive outlook of people saying they will return but the vast bulk of the skiing market don't contribute to skiing forums (or any forums).


That last comment is just so true, as is the rest of it of course. wink
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  • 2 weeks later...
Originally Posted By: acpowman
Rates are out for Niseko apartments for next season....about a 5% increase from this year.
Early bird deals are much the same, they run until about June but limited availability so could sell out before then. Same as always, prices will get more expensive as the year goes on.


With early bird booking as they are - close to non-existant - I would imagine a rethink is being going to be called for!
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I'd say GN hit it right on the nose. The ``hard core'' skiers and boarders (that includes all of us) account for a small fraction of resort days, and probably lower-than-average per-person spending.

Family trips with kids are almost certainly going to decline (people tend to get all emotional and protective about the crumb snatchers for some odd reason).

On the bright side, the hard core may benefit from some big discounts as the season kicks off. Tough for the investors, but them's the breaks.

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Wonder how the general feeling will be come October/November if Tepco are still faffing about with no real results over in Fukushima.

That's surely going to be the point for a lot of people (less gnarly than ourselves of course party )

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Originally Posted By: gnarly-dude
Wonder how the general feeling will be come October/November if Tepco are still faffing about with no real results over in Fukushima. That's surely going to be the point for a lot of (less gnarly) people.


Well if people are clear headed about the issue it shouldn't make any difference whatsoever. Radiation levels outside of the immediate region surrounding the reactors are as safe as anywhere else in the world (actually safer than many other places). Of course the reality is few seem to remain clear headed when it comes to radiation.

I don't believe that TEPCO are 'faffing' about at all. There is no quick fix to the situation. It will take a very long time before things ever get back to near what they were like prior to the tsunami. But unless you are planning on a trip to the reactors themselves there's nothing whatsoever to worry about in terms of radiation levels. You don't have to be all that gnarly to travel in Japan at the moment. You just have to be realistic about the risks which if you don't approach the region of the reactors is really nonexistent.

Factors like the ongoing earthquakes concern me far more than any risk posed by the reactors.
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But people aren't generally clear headed and rational about these things are they.

 

Great to hear that the risk is really non-existant Go Native. Do tell how you know these things, I'm sure we are all most interested.

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Cool.

 

I don't suppose there is a stricken nuclear plant that is unstable and not under control in Australia though.

 

Fancy moving to 30km from the Fukushima plant do you acpowman?

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Originally Posted By: gnarly-dude
But people aren't generally clear headed and rational about these things are they.

Great to hear that the risk is really non-existant Go Native. Do tell how you know these things, I'm sure we are all most interested.


Honestly can't be bothered. Look it up yourself. acpowmans post gives you some idea. Again unless you are intending on actually going to the region surrounding the reactors themselves radiation levels throughout the rest of Japan are pretty much at normal background levels. Unless you worry about normal background levels can't see what there is to worry about.

I'm not suggesting that people won't worry. Of course they will and as I've already stated I believe international travel to the ski resorts in Japan next season will be dramatically affected which sanjo only backs my claims that most people out there are indeed idiots. I have little if any confidence many people will be clear headed about this issue so have no fear I am being completely consistent. wink
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Originally Posted By: Go Native
Unless you worry about normal background levels can't see what there is to worry about.


Are you under the impression that the Fukushima situation is under control and there is nothing to worry about?

If so, I suggest that it is you who needs to look things up.
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Originally Posted By: iiyamadude
Originally Posted By: Go Native
Unless you worry about normal background levels can't see what there is to worry about.


Are you under the impression that the Fukushima situation is under control and there is nothing to worry about?

If so, I suggest that it is you who needs to look things up.


Really? What exactly is out of control? Has anything been escalating? Is the amount of radiation being released increasing or decreasing? Please enlighten me to what I should be worried about up here in Hokkiado or what anyone outside of say 50km from the reactors should be worried about. I have done a lot of reading on the situation. Maybe you have read stuff I'm unaware of. What exactly are you worried about in Nagano? I don't believe anywhere in Nagano is experiencing increased levels of radiation. Is that not the case?
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