muikabochi 208 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 Originally Posted By: RobBright It's okay for you mb, they have mapped your area. It says unchanged. I wonder if that is before or after our March 12th one? Link to post Share on other sites
Thundercat 60 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Here is a bit of a different take on the predictability of earthquakes... and on that seismic hazard map... Quote: TOKYO — Robert Geller, a University of Tokyo professor specializing in seismology, has urged the Japanese government to give up efforts at earthquake prediction in an article issued Thursday on the online edition of the renowned British science magazine Nature. ‘‘All of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographic areas,’’ Geller wrote in the article, contributed to the ‘‘Comment’’ section. The U.S. national called on the government to ‘‘prepare for the unexpected’’ and ‘‘tell the public frankly that earthquakes cannot be predicted.’‘ Geller also said that since 1979, earthquakes that killed 10 or more people in Japan have actually occurred in places assigned a relatively low probability on the government’s seismic hazard map published on a yearly basis. The map assesses that magnitude-8 level earthquakes would hit the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai regions, but Geller said that ‘‘the hazard map and the methods used to produce it are flawed and should be discarded.’‘ ‘‘Future basic research in seismology must be soundly based on physics, impartially reviewed, and be led by Japan’s top scientists rather than by faceless bureaucrats,’’ he said. Referring to the well-documented 1896 Sanriku tsunami which had a maximum height of 38 meters and hit the Tohoku area in northeastern Japan, Geller said tsunami that hit and crippled the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant could have been ‘‘foreseen’’ if the historical record had been used as the basis for estimating seismic hazards. ‘‘Countermeasures for dealing with such events could and should have been incorporated in the initial design of the Fukushima nuclear power plants,’’ Geller said. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted April 23, 2011 Author Share Posted April 23, 2011 The map posted above is not a "seismic hazard map". Not often you hear the gaijin with the 'shouga nai' attitude is it. The 'faceless bureaucrats' comment sounds pretty typical though. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: muikabochi Well, predicting an earthquake and doing research to say that pressures or whatever you call them under ground in certain regions are more than others etc are quite different things. The latter isn't actually pure speculation is it. But that map doesn't measure pressure though does it? According to the OP it measures probability of earthquake in that area. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 ...due to increased pressures after March 11th, no? Whatever. Have it your way. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: muikabochi ...due to increased pressures after March 11th, no? Whatever. Have it your way. But the title of that map doesn't mention anything about pressure does it? Ok, lets compare that chart to the recent aftershocks and see how they match up, eh? Also, whats the point in publishing a map that is missing so much data? Link to post Share on other sites
sanjo 2 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: RobBright But the title of that map doesn't mention anything about pressure does it? The article does. In fact, that's the whole point being made. Recap: æ±æ—¥æœ¬å¤§éœ‡ç½ã§èµ·ããŸåœ°æ®»å¤‰å‹•ã®å½±éŸ¿ã§ã€é¦–都åœã®åºƒã„範囲ã®åœ°ç›¤ã«åŠ›ãŒåŠ ã‚ã‚Šã€åœ°éœ‡ãŒèµ·ãã‚„ã™ã„状態ã«ãªã£ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã¨ã®è§£æžçµæžœã‚’ã€æ±äº¬å¤§åœ°éœ‡ç ”究所ã®ã‚°ãƒ«ãƒ¼ãƒ—ãŒï¼’ï¼’æ—¥ã€ç™ºè¡¨ã—ãŸã€‚ 解æžçµæžœã¯ã€å¤§éœ‡ç½å¾Œã«ç™ºç”Ÿã—ãŸåœ°éœ‡ã®åˆ†å¸ƒã¨ã‚‚ã»ã¼ä¸€è‡´ã—ã¦ã„る。åŒç ”究所ã§ã¯ã€å›½ã®åœ°éœ‡èª¿æŸ»å§”員会ãŒä»Šå¾Œï¼“ï¼å¹´é–“ã«ï¼—ï¼ï¼…ã®ç¢ºçŽ‡ã§èµ·ãã‚‹ã¨äºˆæ¸¬ã—ã¦ã„るマグニãƒãƒ¥ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ï¼—ç´šã®å—é–¢æ±ã®åœ°éœ‡ãŒèª˜ç™ºã•ã‚Œã‚‹å¯èƒ½æ€§ãŒã‚ã‚‹ã¨ã—ã¦ã€æ³¨æ„を呼ã³ã‹ã‘ã¦ã„る。 åŒç ”究所ã®çŸ³è¾ºå²³ç”·ãƒ»ç‰¹ä»»ç ”究員らã¯ã€é¦–都åœã§éŽåŽ»ï¼’４年間ã«èµ·ããŸç´„３万ã®åœ°éœ‡ã§ç ´å£Šã•ã‚ŒãŸé ˜åŸŸãŒã€æ±æ—¥æœ¬å¤§éœ‡ç½ã§ã©ã®ã‚ˆã†ãªå½±éŸ¿ã‚’å—ã‘ã‚‹ã‹ã‚’解æžã—ãŸã€‚ãã®çµæžœã€åœ°éœ‡ãŒèµ·ãã‚„ã™ããªã‚‹åŠ›ãŒåƒãé ˜åŸŸã¯ç´„１万７ï¼ï¼ï¼ã§ã€èµ·ãã«ãããªã‚‹é ˜åŸŸã®ç´„ï¼—ï¼ï¼ï¼ã‚ˆã‚Šã‚‚多ã„ã“ã¨ãŒåˆ†ã‹ã£ãŸã€‚ 震æºãŒï¼“ï¼ã‚ãƒã‚ˆã‚Šã‚‚æµ…ã„地震ã¯ä¼Šè±†ãƒ»ç®±æ ¹ã‚’å«ã‚€é™å²¡çœŒæ±éƒ¨ã‹ã‚‰ç¥žå¥ˆå·çœŒè¥¿éƒ¨ã§ã€ï¼“ï¼ã‚ãƒã‚ˆã‚Šã‚‚æ·±ã„地震ã¯èŒ¨åŸŽçœŒå—西部ã€ãŠã‚ˆã³æ±äº¬æ¹¾åŒ—部ã‹ã‚‰éŠšåã«è‡³ã‚‹ç¯„囲ã§èµ·ãã‚„ã™ããªã£ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã“ã¨ãŒåˆ¤æ˜Žã—ãŸã€‚ Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 So over the next 30 years, the probability of the great kanto earthquake has been increased by 70%. So from the original 100% of the great kanto earthquake occurring within the the 70years from the original cycle, it has increased by 70% within he next 30 years. So we are at 170% now. Link to post Share on other sites
sanjo 2 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Well, no. If you read it again, or get someone to translate it for you if you can't yourself, you will know that it says nothing of the sort. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 国ã®åœ°éœ‡èª¿æŸ»å§”員会ãŒä»Šå¾Œï¼“ï¼å¹´é–“ã«ï¼—ï¼ï¼…ã®ç¢ºçŽ‡ã§èµ·ãã‚‹ã¨äºˆæ¸¬ã—ã¦ã„るマグニãƒãƒ¥ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ï¼—ç´šã®å—é–¢æ±ã®åœ°éœ‡ãŒèª˜ç™ºã•ã‚Œã‚‹å¯èƒ½æ€§ãŒã‚ã‚‹ã¨ã—ã¦ã€æ³¨æ„を呼ã³ã‹ã‘ã¦ã„ã‚‹ oh wise sanjo, please translate this for me, as I no speak Japanese. Link to post Share on other sites
sanjo 2 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 No, do it yourself. I'm not wise, but I can read Japanese enough to know that it sure doesn't say "So over the next 30 years, the probability of the great kanto earthquake has been increased by 70%. So from the original 100% of the great kanto earthquake occurring within the the 70years from the original cycle, it has increased by 70% within he next 30 years. So we are at 170% now." Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: sanjo No, do it yourself. I'm not wise, but I can read Japanese enough to know that it sure doesn't say "So over the next 30 years, the probability of the great kanto earthquake has been increased by 70%. So from the original 100% of the great kanto earthquake occurring within the the 70years from the original cycle, it has increased by 70% within he next 30 years. So we are at 170% now." I notice how you didn't quote the wink there either. Link to post Share on other sites
sanjo 2 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Oh, right. Link to post Share on other sites
Metabo Oyaji 71 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: Tubby Beaver Metabo, what's the latest news with the Reactors, I've kinda stopped watching the news cause it was depressing the shit outta me. Well, they are pouring lots of water through the reactor cores, and most of the temperature and radiation readings are going down, very slowly. Nowhere near stable conditions yet, though, and a lot could go wrong in a hurry at any time. Good news is that atmospheric releases seem to be relatively low for now, bad news is that lots of contaminated water is being generated, with some of it being leaked into the ground. Tokyo Electric is talking about putting in underground barriers to try to confine the contaminated water on site as much as possible. Also, some of the numbers being reported look odd (some temperature and radiation readings and isotope ratios, for example), which have some people scratching their heads. Hopefully there will be turn out to be benign explanations for them, such as instrument malfunctions or transcription errors, but anyway, there is a lot about the state of the situation there that is still not well understood. Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Well well, you and Tepco should really consult with our travel company experts Go Native and acpowman, who know the reality of it being safe and under control: http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/topics/409091/3.html Best time to visit Japan! etc. ( ) Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Originally Posted By: sanjo Oh, right. I know I do say some stupid things from time to time, but I was joking about that 170% stuff. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 http://www.meti.go.jp/english/earthquake/nuclear/japan-challenges/index.html perhaps should go in the useful links? Link to post Share on other sites
fukdane 2 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Definitely calmed down this week. Still getting some but less often. I hope that continues. A big one now would really just ruffle feathers. Link to post Share on other sites
Error404 0 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Earthquakes really do have to be the very worst thing about Japan, hey. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 They are. Link to post Share on other sites
Wizz 11 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Here's something. You know that kind of at-sea sea-sick kind of feeling you get when there's a small wobble of an earthquake? Anyone getting that sometimes when there actually ISN'T an earthquake... you know, all in the mind? Sometimes I kind of feel like that after all we have had the last month and a half. I have to look up at a light that easily sways to see if we are actually moving or not (and then check the JMA website to see if there was one or not). Link to post Share on other sites
Curt 1 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 And another pretty startling video of the tsunami http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/stream/m_news/vn110421_2.htm?from=navlv I'm glad I don't live near the coastline! Link to post Share on other sites
@tokyo 14 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Originally Posted By: Wizz Here's something. You know that kind of at-sea sea-sick kind of feeling you get when there's a small wobble of an earthquake? Anyone getting that sometimes when there actually ISN'T an earthquake... you know, all in the mind? Sometimes I kind of feel like that after all we have had the last month and a half. I have to look up at a light that easily sways to see if we are actually moving or not (and then check the JMA website to see if there was one or not). I have had that feeling yes. And sometimes noises that sound like a quake about to rattle but turn out to be trucks or something. Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Originally Posted By: Error404 Earthquakes really do have to be the very worst thing about Japan, hey. Right up there with squat toilets... Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I think I can put up with the toilets more than the quakes myself! Link to post Share on other sites
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