Next season - let's remember this

[s3phis 0]

Originally Posted By: griller

I know that Go Native. But the date some choose though is just simply unrealistic, almost every year. I can't think of once when Nozawa has hit that date, and I seem to recall that every single year it is postponed often by weeks. And take a look at Ryoma's comments above where he basically say they don't actually expect to open!

Niseko may be different in that it usually is able to open close to that date. But lots of places on Honshu simply are not.

The past few years have been opening as scheduled at Noz... even last year, we opened the top half of the mountain on the scheduled date.

From my memory...
2010 Season: on time (although it was only really half the resort)
2009 Season: On time with the entire resort open
2008 Season: a lot earlier, a number of the lifts and a gondola were started 3 or 4 weeks early. Couldn't get the entire place running because the staff hadn't arrived.
2007 Season: late and the snow was pretty terrible the entire season

I'm not sure when the predictions are done but it's not like we look at the weather forecast for the next 3 days and then say "Okay, our season officially starts tomorrow!". I haven't bothered asking but I'm assuming that the snow was forecasted to arrive sooner, hence almost all the resorts having plans to open early. In essence, I think most people are looking back at previous years in a negative light because they had their hopes up.

Generally speaking, the school doesn't start for a few weeks after the ski fields are open because we time our opening with the winter holidays. This year we're opening on the 18th with the lifts etc running earlier.

If you have an accurate method for predicting weather 5 months in advanced, I'm sure all the ski resorts will welcome it.

[iiyamadude 6]

Er, sorry, WHAT?!?

That is totally incorrect!

I have only checked your first one for 2010.....

 

Last season the resort opened up it's first lifts on December 17!!

They planned about the same as this year I think 21st November.

So unless for you "about 4 weeks late" means "on time", you are so well off the mark there it's funny....

[s3phis 0]

The Nagasaka gondola and 2 of the yamabiko lifts were on in the last week of November, I took some new elans up on the first week of Dec.

[iiyamadude 6]

Was not open.

You could not go and buy a ticket and ride a lift.

[iiyamadude 6]

As well as my good memory, here you go check these reports.

I'm pretty sure the SJ dudes reports would not be so mistaken

 

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/daily/nozawa-now-archive.php?month=11&year=2009

 

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/daily/nozawa-now-archive.php?month=12&year=2009

[s3phis 0]

I guess it is my mistake. We had our exams on the 13th-14th at Kokenashi. I believe they also moved a few groomers up there in late November to start pressing down the snow.

 

I suppose I hadn't really looked at the events around those days.

[seemore 66]

Can't really argue with that.

 

But I am sure there will be a reply

 

Looking forward to it.

 

Seemore

[Go Native 70]

Originally Posted By: griller

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

They're just saying that the lifts are ready.

Which part of Grand Opening 21st November in a great big graphic is 'just saying that the lifts are ready'?

It's certainly not something most Aussies would consider unusual. Aus resorts have their opening day on the Queens Birthday long weekend (ususally around 9-11 June) every year regardless of how much snow there is. Most people would expect there to be little if any snow by then (except maybe some man made stuff) and the weekend is usually more about the parties than the skiing. It's just the date the resort and many businesses reopen for the season and some skiing if there's snow.

[snowbender 3]

I think that's a load of bollocks.

 

If a place says it will open and have a Grand Opening on a certain day then the general public will surely take that as meaning that the place is 'open', or　least have a decent shot of that happening. Yes, the great general public is dumb, as you have so often commented on yourself Go Native. But people not involved or mad keen on the way ski resorts work etc won't take that into account much, just see the Grand Opening sign.

 

Just look on these forums every year how many people come up asking if there will be skiing in October / November.

 

Ryoman / Go Native etc -- in the industry.

Tell it to the people who book accommodation in early December.

[Go Native 70]

Originally Posted By: snowbender

Ryoman / Go Native etc -- in the industry.
Tell it to the people who book accommodation in early December.

I do tell people who are booking before mid December that it's a bit risky. I have certainly never recommended someone come in Nov around the scheduled opening weekend.

Over the last 9 years on this date from the reporting on this site Niseko has had an average cover by now of 50cm at village level and 100cm on the upper mountain. So on average by now there's usually more than enough snow for most of the runs to be open. I always tell customers looking to come this early that whatever skiing there is will mostly be restricted to on-piste as there's rarely enough snow in early Dec to cover enough sasa for the off-piste. Can we guarantee skiable snow every year at this time? Of course not. Some years there'd already be well over a metre up top with excellent skiing by now. Some years will be late.
So what's to tell? Normally there should be skiing by now. You take a risk at any ski area in the world early season. If you're too dumb to realise that then buggered if I care. Most of our guests this early are normally complete beginners anyway from Singapore and Hong Kong. They really just want a snow holiday rather than a full on skiing one anyway. For many just seeing snow fall out of the sky and to have a snowball fight or two is awesome fun. Serious skiers don't come real early season.

As I said earlier I come from a ski culture where the date is set ech year for the grand opening of the ski season and there is no expection that there will actually be much skiable snow at that time.

[muikabochi 208]

As someone mentioned GN, Niseko seems to be more reliable than places down here which often go way over their opening estimates. See Nozawa. Not bashing the place, I like it. So perhaps Niseko is not the best example.......

[muikabochi 208]

Having said that, a fair few here at town level are more realistic, some even planning to open as late as Christmas. It seems to perhaps be the bigger major players that boast of the rather unrealistic opening dates.

[Metabo Oyaji 71]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

For those that actually want to understand the maps above the colours are the height above sea level that the 500mb air pressure is found. Very simply the warmer air is the more it expands so the higher you have to go to get down to 500mb of pressure (about half the normal pressure found at sea level). Where the colour starts to transitioning from green to blue is where the freezing level will be at approximately 1,400m. As you start getting into the darker blues the freezing level is getting close to sea level. Pinks mean temps at sea level will be well below freezing.

The black lines are the isobars at sea level. Importantly there is a strong high developing to the west and a deep low NE of Hokkaido. This is the perfect winter synoptic pattern that drags plenty of cold air down out of Siberia (the powder express) across the Sea of Japan causing the epic snowfalls we're famous for. Anyway understand them or not trust me the maps above are what we're looking for to get big snow in Japan. Just hope it pans out as predicted.

Thanks for the explanation! So to oversimplify, blue is good, orange is bad, and the black lines will tell us which direction the blue regions will be heading?

[Slippery Jim 65]

Openings have gotten later in the past 20 years. I often made first runs in mid- to late-November back in the 80s, at Naeba/Tenjindaira, by early December in Mitsumata/Yuzawa Kogen.

That said, whether it's starry-eyed optimism or industry hype, places that may have opened November 25 in 1985 shouldn't be year after year claiming they will open Nov 25 now, when they know damn well it's not going to happen. That's called ripping off the paying customer.

[SnowJapan#Andrew 6]

I'm convinced that I skied at Kagura once late October, back in the early 90's.

My wife insists I'm wrong, I must ask them one day.

It would be good to see the opening dates, and when they can fully open, over the last 20-30 years.

[muikabochi 208]

That would be interesting, please do!

[Jynxx 4]

Looking good for Hokkaido, all the precipitation will come down as snow.

 

WTF and fuss about all this opening date bollocks. I can´t believe you guys are making such a issue out of it. Simply, no/not enough snow, no openings. I/WE have never taken it as a claim that is will open. Common sense?

 

Even 30 years ago in Japan, you had years where you had early date openings and years when there was not much snow on Xmas.

We have never taken it for granted that there were years we were able to ski in early Dec. In those days there were not many places you can ski in late Nov.

The resorts don´t have to open business if they are losing money!

Why wouldn´t that be different between a big business and a small one?

OK. example from Europe who supposely are better managed than Japan.

Last two years, we had earlier snow, but this year although it started early, there is not much snow. As a result, some resorts are only operating on weekends, (Hochzillertal did not even started the weekend opening in Nov this year, whereas they did so a week earlier last year)

At my local mountain only 2 lifts are operating even they have put a couple of new lifts in place of Tbars this year.

[Jynxx 4]

SJ-Andrew

I go with your wife.

Unless you walked up to the top and did something like MikePow would do in his backyard.

Maybe Tateyama in mid Nov

[iiyamadude 6]

It is called 'a discussion', Jynxx.

If you're not interested in it, you don't have to take part you know.

[iiyamadude 6]

Originally Posted By: Jynxx

Maybe Tateyama in mid Nov

I very much doubt he would mix up Kagura and Tateyama.

[Jynxx 4]

Originally Posted By: iiyamadude

It is called 'a discussion', Jynxx.
If you're not interested in it, you don't have to take part you know.

Common sense.
YOU are making the assumption that I am not.
Say something more intelligent pls but you are entitled to say so, by the way.

[Jynxx 4]

Originally Posted By: iiyamadude

Originally Posted By: Jynxx

Maybe Tateyama in mid Nov

I very much doubt he would mix up Kagura and Tateyama.

I very much doubt that myself . Separate sentence. Should have started with a new paragraph

[iiyamadude 6]

Originally Posted By: Jynxx

Originally Posted By: iiyamadude

It is called 'a discussion', Jynxx.
If you're not interested in it, you don't have to take part you know.

Common sense.
YOU are making the assumption that I am not.
Say something more intelligent pls but you are entitled to say so, by the way.

Can someone translate that into English please?

[iiyamadude 6]

Originally Posted By: Jynxx

Originally Posted By: iiyamadude

Originally Posted By: Jynxx

Maybe Tateyama in mid Nov

I very much doubt he would mix up Kagura and Tateyama.

I very much doubt that myself . Separate sentence. Should have started with a new paragraph

That too!!

[Jynxx 4]

It translates to US English :

Shove it up your ass