Next season - let's remember this

[Hellbuny 0]

Thanks for the tip, I hadn't even noticed that on the daily reports they went back quite awhile.

 

Has anyone done something like gone back and compared averages over the course that the data has been collected? Kind of like a snow farmer's almanac, to see when it normally starts, or as this thread suggests, is it just a given that "never soon enough" is the most accurate answer there is

[Go Native 70]

This is definitely a little late now for there not to be any lifts open yet in Niseko. Still next week is looking good for the Siberian powder express to be pulling into Niseko station. It's going to be epic

[CptSlow 0]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

This is definitely a little late now for there not to be any lifts open yet in Niseko. Still next week is looking good for the Siberian powder express to be pulling into Niseko station. It's going to be epic

This is music to my ears

[seemore 66]

I don't believe in God

 

But I am praying.

 

Seemore

[iiyamadude 6]

Please note that GN isn't actually responsible for the snowfall and has no control over it, so it might not turn out like that. But we hope it will of course.

 

[Go Native 70]

From Wednesday onwards the forecast currently is definitely looking epic

 

[Hokkaidough 4]

Pretty colours!

I'll take your work for it

[CptSlow 0]

Wouldn't it be great if he was

[seemore 66]

What do the colours mean?

 

Which one is snow and what time frame is each map?

 

Seemore

[s3phis 0]

I usually expect the all the runs to be open around 10th~20th Dec in Noz. The top half is usually skiiable by the 10th.

 

Generally speaking, the staff here are still doing their summer jobs until about the 12th~16th. If you think of it that way, they generally expect to be able to do their work (carptenteering/building etc etc) until that date. The instructor/coach refresher courses are held around te 14th~17th of Dec for the qualified coaches etc and they're usually done in less than ideal snow because they want to get it done before the season really starts.

 

Either way, we've got a bit of snow coming over and a bit of warmth on Monday/Tuesday but wednesday onwards looks like the freezing level is going to just drop down the mountain fairly rapidly. We're still lacking snow on the base of the mountain but we're going to have more than ample snow by the time the winter holidays start.

[griller 9]

But the resort advertisers a 21st November opening date!

You know, like nearly 3 weeks ago.

 

And that was my original point.

[grungy-gonads 54]

Have they been sending you emails and junk mail though?

[s3phis 0]

Originally Posted By: griller

But the resort advertisers a 21st November opening date!
You know, like nearly 3 weeks ago.

And that was my original point.

Yeah, you could go along with the over optimistic announcements or go from previous experience. I honestly never pay attention to when they "want" to be open by. I think we're still on track for an 11th opening (wait, was it the 11th? >_>; plz don't quote me D:)

[griller 9]

Yeah. Like I said ---- that was the point!

 

[s3phis 0]

I haven't really had time to follow the forums but I would have thought most people would have done that? *shrug*

[griller 9]

Obviously, no.

And people don't know past seasons however much we point them to the archived daily reports.

Often unrealistic hopes are raised with the big announcements of openings in November.

 

THE POINT OF THE THREAD!

[Go Native 70]

For those that actually want to understand the maps above the colours are the height above sea level that the 500mb air pressure is found. Very simply the warmer air is the more it expands so the higher you have to go to get down to 500mb of pressure (about half the normal pressure found at sea level). Where the colour starts to transitioning from green to blue is where the freezing level will be at approximately 1,400m. As you start getting into the darker blues the freezing level is getting close to sea level. Pinks mean temps at sea level will be well below freezing.

 

The black lines are the isobars at sea level. Importantly there is a strong high developing to the west and a deep low NE of Hokkaido. This is the perfect winter synoptic pattern that drags plenty of cold air down out of Siberia (the powder express) across the Sea of Japan causing the epic snowfalls we're famous for. Anyway understand them or not trust me the maps above are what we're looking for to get big snow in Japan. Just hope it pans out as predicted.

[SKI 15]

As do we all!

 

[Go Native 70]

griller all the resorts plan to open on certain dates (usually around the same dates every year) but it's always snow dependent. Some years they've opened early due to big early snowfalls and some years they open later. This year is defeinitely a little later than normal.

[griller 9]

I know that Go Native. But the date some choose though is just simply unrealistic, almost every year. I can't think of once when Nozawa has hit that date, and I seem to recall that every single year it is postponed often by weeks. And take a look at Ryoma's comments above where he basically say they don't actually expect to open!

 

Niseko may be different in that it usually is able to open close to that date. But lots of places on Honshu simply are not.

 

Quote:

Generally speaking, the staff here are still doing their summer jobs until about the 12th~16th. If you think of it that way, they generally expect to be able to do their work (carptenteering/building etc etc) until that date. The instructor/coach refresher courses are held around te 14th~17th of Dec for the qualified coaches etc and they're usually done in less than ideal snow because they want to get it done before the season really starts.

 

Either way, we've got a bit of snow coming over and a bit of warmth on Monday/Tuesday but wednesday onwards looks like the freezing level is going to just drop down the mountain fairly rapidly. We're still lacking snow on the base of the mountain but we're going to have more than ample snow by the time the winter holidays start.

 

[iiyamadude 6]

Lacking snow pretty much below 800m.

Very much doubt they will be able to do anything on 11th, not much at all up there.

Anyway hopefully mid next week will sort things out by which time it'll be getting on for 4 weeks after they 'sort of planned' ( ) to open.

[NoFakie 45]

My point is that an announcement on a website is not "all this fuss", let alone a "big fanfare". They're just saying that the lifts are ready. I'm not looking it up, but Goryu has opened a couple of times around Dec 2 in the past five or six seasons. With all the messed up weather we've had in recent years, I suspect there is more and more deviation about when the snow does come, but with it generally being later due to the warming trend.

 

Weather charts that are a week out can still change a bit, but that one looks about as good as it gets for snow. A park your snowblower by the front door or wade through waist deep to dig it out storm. It'll get twenty minutes on the news!

 

Snowing outside there now, as it happens.

[griller 9]

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

They're just saying that the lifts are ready.

Which part of Grand Opening 21st November in a great big graphic is 'just saying that the lifts are ready'?

[SKI 15]

What places should really do is say something along the lines of "We'll open when there's enough snow", perhaps show the earlist date possible along with the dates that was in previous seasons along with some nice forecasts on their site.

 

That would no doubt be too helpful though and accomodations etc might not like it. They will much prefer a date to target.

[Hellbuny 0]

Luckily since I haven't done much over here, I'm spam free, but in a sick kind of way I wish I did have some, building anticipation ya know? But hell, I have that plenty already I guess.

 

Maybe I'll play with some of the snow report numbers and see what the stats say. Gotta use the college learnin for something lol