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Yes i too thought it feels warmer, and was also surprised by the results, but when I compared the results, this November has actually been colder. I have measured those temps using the same thermometer in exactly the same place for accuracy.

Will be interesting to see how December compares.

 

In comparison this October was way warmer than last year.

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From JMA it seems much of the southern half of Honshu was close to or slightly below average temps (within 1 degree of the average) and much of the northern half was close to or slightly above average. Only the very northern tip of Honshu and most of Hokkaido saw positive departures from the average of more than 1 degree.

 

You'll notice that most of the area that had slightly below average temps is also the area that had well below average precipitation and above average sunshine. So although there was plenty of sun and the days would have felt pretty mild or warm I'm thinking the fairly dry conditions and probably many clear nights would have meant considerably cooler than average nights?

 

201011s_e.png

 

 

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In the short term, things are looking up from Tuesday next week! Northerly winds and low pressure on Wed/Thu could hopefully bring snow even to resort levels and perhaps allow a few resorts to open! Fingers crossed...!

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Originally Posted By: Go Native
'Biasing'??

Their forecast models may well have predicted warmer winters but I'd hardly consider that a bias.

Considering there have been very few winters over the last decade that have averaged below the long term average I'd say they haven't been too far off the mark. wink

The fact they are forecasting a colder than average December is encouraging.


I meant biasing as in saying its more likely to be warmer than normal than colder than normal.
All of their forecasts are expressed relative to normal as the center and are neutral or have a weighting one way or the other. That's what I meant by bias. The state of being off-center. Not prejudiced or fixed or something.
Since they always leave at least 10% on the opposite side and 20% in the middle, I've never thought of their numbers as being something as bold as a "prediction" (!) but I guess that's what they are.

Anyway, in recent winters they've typically said 20% chance of colder, 40% chance of normal, 40% chance of warmer. And winters generally have been warmer, even the snowy ones. This year is 40% colder for December for a change, so yes, that sounds good! Bring it on!
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The next week doesn't look great over Japan. Best chance of any real snowfalls are in southern Japan's ski resorts later in the week. Hokkiado especailly will struggle over the next week with plenty of rain at village level at many resorts extending to many of the peaks for a time. Can't be to long now before things change....soon it'll be Christmas

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Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles
Originally Posted By: Go Native
'Biasing'??

Their forecast models may well have predicted warmer winters but I'd hardly consider that a bias.

Considering there have been very few winters over the last decade that have averaged below the long term average I'd say they haven't been too far off the mark. wink

The fact they are forecasting a colder than average December is encouraging.


I meant biasing as in saying its more likely to be warmer than normal than colder than normal.
All of their forecasts are expressed relative to normal as the center and are neutral or have a weighting one way or the other. That's what I meant by bias. The state of being off-center. Not prejudiced or fixed or something.
Since they always leave at least 10% on the opposite side and 20% in the middle, I've never thought of their numbers as being something as bold as a "prediction" (!) but I guess that's what they are.

Anyway, in recent winters they've typically said 20% chance of colder, 40% chance of normal, 40% chance of warmer. And winters generally have been warmer, even the snowy ones. This year is 40% colder for December for a change, so yes, that sounds good! Bring it on!


It isn't that they are hedging their bets. Basically what they are doing is looking at a whole range of factors that affect climate. They compare the current situation to previous years where there are similar factors and look at what were the outcomes from those years. SO 20% of the time it ended up cooler, 40% about average and 40% above average. It's a bit more complicated than just that but I'm sure you get what I mean. So in this example you could say that the most probable outcome according to their prediction would be for average or above (80% probability) with a 20% probability that it could actually end up below average.
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I hope you are right!!! Looks marginal at best in the north to me after heavy rain but i have to admit the last couple of runs on the weather models im looking at look a bit better for mid to late next week!!

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Originally Posted By: Skiwi
I hope you are right!!! Looks marginal at best in the north to me after heavy rain but i have to admit the last couple of runs on the weather models im looking at look a bit better for mid to late next week!!


I Skiwi, which weather forecasts do you look at.
One I like is http://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=japan&noofdays=7
Also thanks GN for the unisys one, I like it.

Also for people who want to learn about reading weather maps I found
this helpful book: Meterology Today, an online book
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Hi sand. i normally look at this one. Although a little German is needed

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnoas.html

 

Alternatively http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...MO=&PERIOD= is a good model. I normally find 850 temps of -5 or below and dewpoints of less than 0 are a good starting point for snow in Niseko (to village level)

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Originally Posted By: muikabochi
Damn, the forecast for this week isn't looking nearly as exciting as it did last week.

sadface


Yeah, you're right. And the probably colder (or average) December has yet to turn up too.

If its any consolation, snow/sleet is coming down here now when snow-forecast said heavy rain. Their forecasts for the next day even have been wrong a number of times in the last two weeks. Sleet down here means nice base-building snow on the hill. It won't be good to ski on, but good prep for the season.
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Hope it stays cooler than expected there Wiggles but I think the warmest air will move through down that way overnight and still see rain to the tops of the resorts. Fingers crossed it doesn't though!

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Bit of a weird one yesterday in the end with snow at 2C turning to rain as the temperature fell to just above zero. Heavy rain through the night too, so its all gone lower down. Quite warm outside there now too :(

 

Here are my thoughts on the recent weather.

 

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What you had was an inversion in the valley. The warm air moved in above a pool of colder air in the valley floor. Classic scenario to get freezing rain. The inversion has now gone and so it's warmed up considerably. Should all turn to snow by tomorrow though thumbsup

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