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The 10/11 Japan winter snow prediction thread. Hurray!


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It´s gone chilly the last few days here in Europe already.

I reckon we will have another early snow. Like Oct or Nov.

Dunno about mainland Japan. Jellsfish sounds good enough bottom line... wink

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mmm...

the seasons are coming on earlier then.

it was more summerlike temperature in spring than it was in Aug here. Of course the sun is higher but the air was cooler.

Interesting thing about the snow here is; it seems to start snowing earlier but it doesn´t dump compared to, say 4 years ago. ah, I´m not on the french side of the Alps.

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Three month outlook from this point has above seasonal temps right until November. It's only getting down to about 26-27 degrees at night here in Shizuoka... not all that cool really. I love summer though so no complaints here! Although I'm definitely looking forward to a cold snowy winter!!

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Nothing like a good old volcano eruption to cool things down. Combine the Indo one and Iceland earlier this year and we will definitely see a big year for snow. Who needs civilisation to mess with the atmosphere.

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Yeah April and May had below average temps throughout the country. Snowdrifts lasted around my house into the 2nd week of May!

 

I'm almost ready to make my own prediction for this coming winter but to be honest I think it's just a little too early to do more than guess. Think I'll wait till the end of Sept. At this stage though I'm leaning towards pretty close to average temps and snowfall, starting a little late but ending big. Will get more detailed at the end of Sept.

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No am keeping an eye on whether we enter a La Nina phase of ENSO this autumn which can enhance the southern mode of the EAWM which usually results in plenty of cold air out of Siberia down across the mid latitudes. It'll be interesting to see how the AO and NAO als track over the next month.

 

Bit more scientific but probably no more accurate than the jellyfish or 90 yo neighbour! lol

 

glossary for those that aren't up on climatological acronyms:

 

ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation

EAWM - East Asian Winter Monsoon

AO - Arctic Oscillation

NAO - North Atlantic Oscillation

 

thumbsup

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Originally Posted By: Go Native
No am keeping an eye on whether we enter a La Nina phase of ENSO this autumn which can enhance the southern mode of the EAWM which usually results in plenty of cold air out of Siberia down across the mid latitudes. It'll be interesting to see how the AO and NAO als track over the next month.


Sounds like a load of nonsense to me! wink

Anyone ask any elephants? They are supposed to be wise.
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The other thing I'll keep an eye on is the extent of early season snowfalls across Siberia, especially southern Siberia. All these things can give indications as to the likely dominant synoptic situation over the winter months.

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Many people find it more interesting to believe in gods, ghosts, UFO's, psychic powers and all sorts of other mystical crap as well. It's certainly a very enlightened world we live in! doh

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Originally Posted By: 2pints,mate
Originally Posted By: Go Native
No am keeping an eye on whether we enter a La Nina phase of ENSO this autumn which can enhance the southern mode of the EAWM which usually results in plenty of cold air out of Siberia down across the mid latitudes. It'll be interesting to see how the AO and NAO als track over the next month.


Sounds like a load of nonsense to me! wink

Anyone ask any elephants? They are supposed to be wise.


That sounds wise in itself.
Perhaps you could make a prediction!
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