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The jellyfish all over shonan since the end of August means that it won't snow much until late December in Nagano and Niigata but will be a bumper January.

 

The dead fish that Tubby Beaver refers to means that Gifu will have a good season but might be bad news for Toyama.

 

I thought it was pretty obvious.

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Originally Posted By: griller
The jellyfish all over shonan since the end of August means that it won't snow much until late December in Nagano and Niigata but will be a bumper January.

The dead fish that Tubby Beaver refers to means that Gifu will have a good season but might be bad news for Toyama.

I thought it was pretty obvious.


now that you mention it Griller....yeah it is very obvious!! smile
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Long term forecast for Dec thru Feb released by the JMA today.. I don't like to read too much into it as long term forecasting is shady at best.. wasn't it in 2005 when they said it was going to be a very warm winter and it ended up being an epic season in terms of cold temps and snowfall?

 

here it is anyways:

 

Temps Forecast

 

Northern Japan (incl. all prefectures Fukushima & Yamagata and north)

40% chance of above average temps

30% chance of average temps

30% chance of below average temps

 

Kanto & Hokuriku

50% chance of above average temps

30% chance of average temps

20% chance of below average temps

 

Snowfall Forecast

Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku

40% chance of below average snowfall

40% chance of average snowfall

20% chance of above average snowfall

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寒・暖候期予報(関æ±ç”²ä¿¡åœ°æ–¹ï¼‰2009å¹´9月24日発表

 

平年ã«æ¯”ã¹æ›‡ã‚Šã‚„雨ã¾ãŸã¯é›ªã®æ—¥ãŒå¤šã„ã§ã—ょã†ã€‚

ã“ã®æœŸé–“ã®å¹³å‡æ°—温ã¯ã€é«˜ã„確率50%ã§ã™ã€‚

é™æ°´é‡ã¯ã€å¹³å¹´ä¸¦ã¾ãŸã¯å¤šã„確率ã¨ã‚‚ã«40%ã§ã™ã€‚

ãªãŠã€12月ã¾ã§ã®å„月ã®äºˆå ±ã«ã¤ã„ã¦ã¯ã€æœ€æ–°ã®3ã‹æœˆäºˆå ±ç­‰ã‚’ã”覧下ã•ã„。

 

http://tenki.jp/long/detail-4.html?forecast_span=six_month

 

Sounds like it could go either way for Nagano/Niigata.

Average or more precipitation, but probably high temps.

If it falls when its cold, wahey!

If it doesn't, boo! Hot and wet is nice with a lady, but ain't no good if you're in the mountains!

 

The lower resorts might suffer again, but it should be fine if not loads better than fine higher up.

 

BBC reported a month or so back that ocean temps are way up worldwide, which means more evaporation and more precipitation. That makes sense to me! Soubriquet talked about it too, assisted by charts in very psychedelic colours.

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Originally Posted By: grungy-gonads
I recall him getting increasingly stroppy and bitter, and then disappearing. He popped up a few weeks ago saying "I've been away for a bit" followed by nothing.

His lady was very ill ... I'd be stroppy too. I have wondered how she was going, and how Soubs was coping. Cant have been an easy time for them.
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Originally Posted By: Mada
Long term forecast for Dec thru Feb released by the JMA today.. I don't like to read too much into it as long term forecasting is shady at best.. wasn't it in 2005 when they said it was going to be a very warm winter and it ended up being an epic season in terms of cold temps and snowfall?

here it is anyways:

Temps Forecast

Northern Japan (incl. all prefectures Fukushima & Yamagata and north)
40% chance of above average temps
30% chance of average temps
30% chance of below average temps

Kanto & Hokuriku
50% chance of above average temps
30% chance of average temps
20% chance of below average temps

Snowfall Forecast
Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku
40% chance of below average snowfall
40% chance of average snowfall
20% chance of above average snowfall


So does that mean that there is a 60% chance of above average snowfall for Hokkaido?
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Originally Posted By: ratherb@thesnow

Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku
40% chance of below average snowfall
40% chance of average snowfall
20% chance of above average snowfall


So does that mean that there is a 60% chance of above average snowfall for Hokkaido?


ummm... I am not expert... but I reckon it means a 20% chance of above average snowfall.

Perhaps you mean a 60% chance of average to above average snowfall?
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Basically there's a good chance of average and it would be nice to just get an average year again. The likelihood of above average though is only 20% and there's more chance of below average.

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Well JMA will update their forecast regularly and frankly as we all know forecasting models are lucky enough to get it right just a few days out. When we're talking months out it's just pure speculation.

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Originally Posted By: thursday
if it's 40% chance of below average, the n its 60% average or above.


or 80% of average and below depending on how you read it?

those statistics are so wide, its basically covering their arses if it pukes or doesn't puke snow.
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