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What bigger, more attractive and captivating title for a thread could there be? (I guess I will soon find out by the response level...)

 

All I want to do is start my annual late summer prediction fest about just how good the new season's going to turn out. Any pseudo-science, insect observations, thoughts of the local oyajis in the mountains or brain-box type detailed long range weather forecasts are most welcome...

 

After the relative disappointment of '08-09 typified by a scarcity of snow in Hakuba right until Christmas, I'm hoping that we'll see a decent early start to proper snowfalls in the main resorts. What else?

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Well I've never experienced two bad seasons in a row in Japan. That's the only science I can muster. I predict I'll be in deep pow in the Ikenotaira trees on December 26th*

 

*Unless I drink too much on Christmas night - in which case I revise my prediction to December 27th...

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I would like to know what the old locals reckon, you know the ones that have lived in the area for 50 years say... But it would have to be specific to the various places... for example, SK would get different indicators and falls to Nozawa, Hakuba or Niseko.

 

Same as you wouldn't trust someone from Goldy to give you local indicators for the surf on the sunny coast...

 

Personally, I would love to see a consistent, solid season with epic dumps just before and during our stay in SK... razz

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lol clap

depends if you have a Kami-dana in your house and make offerings every day.

Or, I'm know as weather boy and depends if I am there or not ... party

Donations are welcome for my rituals to bring about the weather you desire.

Hence the weather is fickle in nature, depending on my girl at the time, it can change in moments notice. wakaranai

I can give you ... Ijyo Kisho one way or the other.

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At some stage, it will be epic, of that I'm sure.

 

mactos - I read about your early season trip to Niseko, and I hope you're right...

 

I get a better feeling as we get into October, at least I think so. To ski at least once before Christmas is the most I ask for - and the Karuizawa Prince doesn't count!

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YEAH THE PREDICTION THREAD HAS STARTED!!! I am hoping for a bumper season ALTHOUGH February last year in Niseko I couldn't complain, we had heaps of snow.

 

Skidaisuki BRING ON THE PREDICTIONS!!

 

Originally Posted By: thursday
if you were a girl, I'd say you left your panty hose on while having sex.

 

But seeing as it's you, I'd say you left your panty hose on while having sex.

 

Thursday that is a little weird!! Sex with your panty hose on! omg

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i heard yesterday that next year is a El Nino year- therefore bringing wet and warm weather to these and other shores.

Bring on the wet....only if it falls as snow.

 

I also heard Whistler - who have the main events at next years Olympics might be in for a dire year.

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Originally Posted By: Sciclone
I would like to know what the old locals reckon, you know the ones that have lived in the area for 50 years say... But it would have to be specific to the various places... for example, SK would get different indicators and falls to Nozawa, Hakuba or Niseko.

Same as you wouldn't trust someone from Goldy to give you local indicators for the surf on the sunny coast...


I've taken a very active interest in weather and climate for most of my life including majoring in meteorology at university. To be honest I have found that most locals, regardless of how long they have lived in a place, generally have no more insight into long term weather forecasting than any of the rest of us. They can be useful to some extent in predicting weather for a few days out but for long term forecasting, forget about it!

Personally I'm not willing to even have a guess at this stage, still way too early.
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Originally Posted By: Go Native
To be honest I have found that most locals, regardless of how long they have lived in a place, generally have no more insight into long term weather forecasting than any of the rest of us.


Yep, very true. Locals are pretty good at telling me how good it USED to be though. Seeing some old photos at the Myokokogen Visitor Center in Ikenotaira I'd have to agree. My better half tells me tales of getting out of the 3rd story window to go to school in the morning!

Here's maybe what's coming... veryshocked

The_Other_Coast.7.g.gif
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Go Native - I remember your very detailed comments on the weather and snow prospects in previous seasons and I look forward to more of the same, from your Northern perspective, when the time comes.

 

Of course you're right, it is definitely far too early to have any realistic chance of accurately forecasting what 09-10 will be like.

 

Starting a thread like this in Mid-August is a bit of a joke really, and I agree with your point about the locals (how many times have the old boys - or the stinkbugs - made predictions and been completely wrong?). However, it does make for some interesting stories when you separate the science from the folklore.

 

We are all agreed on what we want, so let's enjoy some informative and amusing discussion as we start heading towards autumn.

 

Thanks for all your contributions...

 

SdS

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One thing I can say is that up this way the last 3 seasons have been significanty below average. Kutchan has had less than 10m of snow for 3 consequtive years which has never happened previously since records began in 1953 so the chances of it happening again would have to be low.

I know many people who've come over here during the last 3 seasons have found it rather hard to believe that it's a 'bad' season when they're still getting more snow than they've have ever seen in their lives before. Still if we get another season like 04/05 when Kutchan recorded over 14m then they'll really find out what it's like when this place turns it on! I'm certainly hoping for another big one but am wondering how the hell I'll keep up with snow clearing around my house if we do (it's hard enough when we only get 8 or 9m!).

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Jet engine, GN? That'd melt it like crazy razz

 

I'd still like to hope for a good season... We're bringing a friend over who has never been to the snow before, so I'd like to spoil him and ourselves at the same time...

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I'm headed back to Hirafu in late October for the Bledisloe match in Tokyo on 31 Oct (NZ v OZ in rugby for the infidels).

 

Hope to be making turns before flying south.

 

After that, there'll be pow to be skied all season. Just need to know where to look sometimes wink

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man - all this talk of snow is getting me so damned excited that the season can't come soon enough - even tempted to *shock* not go back at xmas and stay in Japan and board everyday. biggrin

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Originally Posted By: RobBright
man - all this talk of snow is getting me so damned excited that the season can't come soon enough - even tempted to *shock* not go back at xmas and stay in Japan and board everyday. biggrin


Do it Rob ... Do it!
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