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Originally Posted By: snowhunter
HENCE if you are in Japan - Hong Kong - Singapore - UK - US everything is AOK because the yen hasn't plummeted like it has for us Australians and I believe that a lot of the winter ski trade comes from AUS.


thing is that for the JPY to "plummet" it has nto do so against some other currency! As it happens, the Yen is the one seen as the stable currency in all of this, so it has become a sort of benchmark. A lot of other currencies are dropping in value as against the Yen.

If the Yen were to plummet, then some other currency would have to be the stable benchmark. I don't see that happening any time soon. I seriously do hope, though, that the AUD gets a boost against the Yen in the next couple of months. (I still need to buy some Yen for January! and at 50 - 60 per AUD it just ain't pretty!)
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I read in the Japan Times that a hotel in Niseko, who remained anonymous, had had 20% cancellation in the past couple of months.

 

It is easy to see how when you factor in as an example the holiday costs 20,000AUD and everyone here has a 20% deposit so 4,000AUD. 3 months ago that was 16,000AUD to pay 60 days prior to arrival or about 1,600,000JPY....now that is near on 2,800,000JPY.

 

If I was in that situation, I would seriously consider loosing my 4,000AUD to save 12,000AUD, it just means that you will return home and have a huge debt hanging over your head.

 

As JA said, the yen is stable so it will take a lot to get the AUD back to anywhere near where it was.

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If I hadn't paid for my air tickets I would seriously think about cancelling. I suggested some drastic economies to Mrs T (our expenses are not too bad as accomodation is provided by family) such as cancelling 4 days staying at a resort, cut back on the onsen & eating out. But as she said we've gone to all that expense to get there its crazy not to enjoy yourself. But I'll definitely not be buying hot coffee from the vending machine, which is a pity.

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JA a little good news the yen has climbed back up to 63yen = $1 who would have thought I would be excited about that but it is better tan 57Y. Am definately going to buy some yen if it gets to 65Y and then I will wait and see if there is any improvement before February.

 

We are still doing 100% better than other people our trip is 100% paid for so it is just food while we are there. Which in the big scheme of things is not major!!

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Had a chat last night about the failing Aussie Dollar, and while we are not cancelling our travel plans for January we will be cutting back on new bookings until there is a recovery. Perhaps the real impact of the high Yen is yet to be seen....

 

We also decided that Eldest childs 'gap year' should be spent working abroad so he can earn in more bouyant currency - and get a bit of international travel/experience in too... after exams are finished Papa will work with him in trying to find something. We have family and friends in a number of countries that he could connect with, and he speaks Japanese so fingers crossed. I wonder if more people will be thinking the same, and how that will effect things...?

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I really believe that this year they may find it affects them a little (they are saying down 20%)BUT I think it is going to be next year that they may see a real dive.

 

This year most people are booked or committed and can't get out of it so they will still go but with tightened belts. With the economic outlook for next year not great I think 2009/2010 season may be a shocker. Also the winter olympics are on in vancouver.

 

HANG ON - May that is the time to book for Japan???? confused

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Welcome. You will learn heaps from this website. It is like a bible before going to Japan. Don't forget to check out the Daily Reports for the resort you are going to.

 

Every cent you have spent on your trip will be well worth it YOU WONT BE DISAPPOINTED! wave

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Thanks for the welcome!

 

haha yeah i've been watching them already for a while, I'm going to hakuba.. waiting anxiously for first snow in the village..

 

we have 14 days of skiing/boarding from mid jan to early feb, and also a big first for me.. I've always hired.. just finished buying all my own gear.. everything. how will I ever survive the wait.

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Originally Posted By: snowhunter
I really believe that this year they may find it affects them a little (they are saying down 20%)BUT I think it is going to be next year that they may see a real dive.

This year most people are booked or committed and can't get out of it so they will still go but with tightened belts. With the economic outlook for next year not great I think 2009/2010 season may be a shocker. Also the winter olympics are on in vancouver.


maybe for you, but for us in country it could be epic....even smaller lift lines and more fresh POW to shred!!!
biggrin
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Originally Posted By: FamiliaGTX
Thanks for the welcome!

haha yeah i've been watching them already for a while, I'm going to hakuba.. waiting anxiously for first snow in the village..

we have 14 days of skiing/boarding from mid jan to early feb, and also a big first for me.. I've always hired.. just finished buying all my own gear.. everything. how will I ever survive the wait.


Another welcome, from a fellow Aussie. You will find that the folks here (with but a few exceptions) are friendly, helpful and willing to go out of their way to provide good info.

The ex-pats (from all over) who are in country are extremely knowledgeable about the local scene. If you ever have any questions, just ask. There is almost certain to be someone who known something (if not everything) about it!

As for getting there, us Aussies can help if you just ask.

Trust me, you will not be disappointed. If you have run through "goat gully" at PB in a bad year's September, you'll understand what "no snow" means. In Japan, a year with less than a metre of snow is a "bad" year - more pow that you'd see in a decade of skiing at PB or Falls.
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haha thanks guys!, JA you're only just across the range from me, i'm in Port Macquarie.

 

and yeah i have been to perisher when only a few runs were open before, not fun.. can't wait to get into the fresh pow in japan.

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I plan on spending around 3 months in JP.. the exchange rates are well.. shocking and I expect them to only get worse.. So about a month ago I started to exchange chunks of money to hedge my bets.. if the exchange rate picks up again, then great, but if not.. then I will be affected but not in such a sevre way..

 

and now I also plan on trying to get some sort of part time job in a bar/resturant/english tutoring.. every little bit helps!

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The dollar/yen thing will be a major difficulty for next season. We are looking at going this season, having a ball and paying for it throughout the following year. Since we'll be unable to afford another trip in 2010 we may not be back until 2011. (That will be sad, but that's the economic reality as she is seen at the momemt!)

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The poor exchange rate will take a toll on tourist numbers this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if more foreigners are attracted to employment in Japan. Of course, you'd have to be saving the money to send home for this to be beneficial.

 

I've head over for the last five seasons, the most recent three times on backpacking routes. This year I just can't afford it, no matter how far I stretch the maths. I'm sure there will be others like myself on the budget end of the spectrum who can't afford that extra two thousand dollars :(. Had an amazing past few years though, and the yen can't stop me from reliving my favorite runs in my daydreams.

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Unlikely to impact too heavily on those who've already paid for (non-refundable) air tickets. With that expense committed, there is little to be gained by cancelling. OTOH, if the air component were refundable, then there's every chance that we'd have considered ditching this season's trip in favour of a later one.

 

As I said, the impact is likely to be greater in the following season.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I had an interesting conversation with my girlfriend today (Travel Agent) and we were talking about the price increases and whether she had had many people cancel Her Reply was.

 

The Resorts can put their prices up in these tough times without to much fear of cancellations because there is still plenty of demand there. She hasn't noticed a huge drop in people going to Japan on Ski Trips and is still getting people coming in and booking.

 

What about 2010 season though OR maybe it will be come a playground for the rich and famous.

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For most people (day traders and self-funded retirees aside), I don't think the tough times have quite hit home yet, and there is still money to spend. If Australia goes into recession, and the AUD stays in the doldrums, I reckon the next couple of years will be a different story.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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