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Even not so great years in terms of snowfall, are great compared to most resorts outside Japan.

 

Everything from Nagano area looking north gets a sheer amount of snow and powder even in bad years compared to resorsts in Europe, Australia o New Zealand.

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coldcat Hokkaido is most of the country as far as I'm concerned and the only part I care about snow conditions biggrin

 

I'm wondering just how many years have you been following the JMA site? I can remember them predicting below average temps only a few years ago. Don't know where you get the idea that JMA is part of the AGW conspiracy but hey you guys that believe that stuff don't usually let reason get in the way of your arguments...

 

And snowdude if your grandfather got his predictions right 90% of the time then man he really could have made some money because that's better than just about anyone I've ever heard of. Be nice if you could show some empirical data to back up the claims. Frankly in my experience nature is not that great at all for weather prediction. Nature often gets it completely wrong.

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Anyway, I'd just like to advise people not to stress too much about weather. Like many people have said in this post it's impossible to predict weather accurately. Professionals say the threadshold from which you can start speaking of reliable prediction is 3 days in advance. Anything else has a lot of magic and very little science. Moreover, my experience tells me that we can't speak of cold or warm winters in Japan, rather some years December is cold, January average and february warm, or any other combination. For example, last year January and February was colder than average, and March was extremely hotter than average. In 2007, 2 years ago, January and February were warmer than average but March and April were colder than average.

 

That's the story, this is the real world and fortunately or unfortunately things are way to complex to adapt to such simplified forecasts.

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Just what professionals say that coldcat? Do you actually know how forecast models work? You do make a lot of comments on weather as though you actually know something about it. You certainly comment endlessly on AGW topics. Just wondering do you actually have any scientific qualifications that allow you to have such definite opinions on climatology and meteorology?

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Originally Posted By: Go Native
coldcat Hokkaido is most of the country as far as I'm concerned and the only part I care about snow conditions biggrin


That's exactly what I thought, you live in Hokkaido and you sure are pretty lucky to do biggrin

Anyway,unfortunately, they don't have a record of the long term predictions they do each year at the JMA site, although it'd be interesting in order to be able to compare them with the actual data to see how accurate or not accurate they are. In any case, we have to be satisfied with our memory and what I remember and you remember seems to be different. I might be wrong.

And about not paying atttention to reason and facts, I think it's the other way around, but hey this has been discussed somewhere else, so lest people start getting bored of coldcat's skeptic posts on GW, i'll just shut up smile

Like everything else, time will tell.
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I do not have a degree on metereology and I'm no scholar if that's what you are asking. I am sorry you got the false impression that I am trying to look like a proffesional metereologist. I've done a few courses on metereology, yes. But that doesn't make me a professional or scholar. I do know a small bit about GW cos I've been interested in it for many years. I just express my views, and as far as I remember have never claimed they are the undeniable truth.

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By the way, answering your questions. The first one is obvious if you study a little of metereology as its a well known fact. The second one, yes I know how some of those models work cos I have worked with them in the past as a volunteer (my field is computer science).

 

(If you want to know more details we can talk with private messages, as I wouldn't like to say anything else about me in a public forum.)

 

Peace.

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Its far more than obvious to me and probably to anyone else in here that neither of you have a degree in Geophysics, so there not really any point in flaming about the JMA predictions. Unless of course you are friends with Rahul. wink smile

 

Even the JMA guys that have, have problems making accurate predictions. Last spring is not that far, were they could not give an accurate prediction about 梅雨 (the rainy season). As far as I see it 40% means we don't have a clue on how to interpret this years patterns so lets give a small percentage according to the average trend the last few years.

 

Anyway, as coldcat says, time will eventually tell, so relax. There no point of making a big deal about the weather.

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HOLY DOOLY!! This thread got very intense. Our meterogist can't even predict the weather 1 week ahead correctly (I have found the most accurate to be Weatherzone). I do keep up to date with JMA weather closer to the date of holiday.

 

Okay one thing we can hopefully be sure of is that there is going to be snow to ski on and as long as there a couple big dumps while we are there in February we will be happy. Even a day of snow and I am happy.

 

If the temperatures a little above normal well then I will only have to wear 1 set of thermals. smile

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Originally Posted By: Go Native
coldcat Hokkaido is most of the country as

And snowdude if your grandfather got his predictions right 90% of the time then man he really could have made some money because that's better than just about anyone I've ever heard of. Be nice if you could show some empirical data to back up the claims. Frankly in my experience nature is not that great at all for weather prediction. Nature often gets it completely wrong.


Doubt it back then most had a good idea how to tell what the weather would be like, so no money in it!
True nature does play tricks with us, but still much more accurate than a computer. I would say my accuracy in the last 5 or so years has been about 65% or a little higher.

I would love to present some data to you here, but all what I learned from my Grandfather was from him showing me and teaching me, he certainly didn't document anything then, as he was not interested in figures, just was normal for him to predict the weather from what he saw around him.

I am still learning and don't know if I will ever have his ability or even if the world now allows me to be able to be so accurate, but it is fun trying anyway. Certainly fun trying to be more accurate than the experts!
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There's usually a heated debate on this topic about this time every year, if you'll excuse the pun. It simply reflects everyone's impatience about the forthcoming season and enthusiasm about the cooler weather which is on the way.

 

One thing I can say to some less experienced readers is that even a bad season in Japan has many days and weeks of excellent snow at most resorts, and for the majority of us who have to live a "normal" life during the winter - i.e. work in the city, not as a backcountry guide - most of the good days are simply daydreamed about anyway. Harsh reality, but one good day of skiing is worth months of sitting around doing other stuff, as far as I'm concerned.

 

There'll be plenty of snow, sooner or later, for us all to enjoy. I'm not too bothered about an early start - except it'd be good for our friends in the mountains - but since I do most of my skiing from New Year onwards, my main wish is for a later finish than last year.

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Originally Posted By: skidaisuki
There's usually a heated debate on this topic about this time every year, if you'll excuse the pun. It simply reflects everyone's impatience about the forthcoming season and enthusiasm about the cooler weather which is on the way.

One thing I can say to some less experienced readers is that even a bad season in Japan has many days and weeks of excellent snow at most resorts, and for the majority of us who have to live a "normal" life during the winter - i.e. work in the city, not as a backcountry guide - most of the good days are simply daydreamed about anyway. Harsh reality, but one good day of skiing is worth months of sitting around doing other stuff, as far as I'm concerned.

There'll be plenty of snow, sooner or later, for us all to enjoy. I'm not too bothered about an early start - except it'd be good for our friends in the mountains - but since I do most of my skiing from New Year onwards, my main wish is for a later finish than last year.



That's exactly right actually sukidasiki, even a really crappy season in Japan means lots of snow compared to most other parts of the world and many fun days of skiing.

I think people are spoiled when we get a year where it dumps big time all the time throughout winter, those type of years are going to be few and far, but an average year in Japan is still going to be absolutely great.

So regardless to how the weather turns out I am sure everyone will be able to enjoy the snow, it is just you die hards that are not satisfied if it doesn't snow 1 metre every night.

I know I am very much looking forward to this coming winter.
Even a short season here is still far better than most other places around the world anyway.

Let us all be patient, the snow is not far off now!!!
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Originally Posted By: stemik
Word in the Elementary school yard - there's going to be heavy snow this year in Hakuba because of all the large moths around.
Stemik's daughter age 9 1/2

Probably the most reliable forecast yet. (But of course, heavy snow in Hakuba would seem like a no-brainer)
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