snowdude 44 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Well as promised here is this winters forecast from me, although I may adjust it again in a couple of weeks or so if nature decides to tell me otherwise. I think we are in for a not so cold, and short winter, with maybe one or two cold snaps but nothing long lasting. Looking at all the signs so far compared to other years at this time we are not going to have an epic winter, at least not in Kanto, chubu areas. I think we will probably see a cold late December and cold January, with February providing a few very cold days and thats about it! I will be off to Niigata this weekend to do Inakari, while I am there I will have a look around that part of the world too. Of course nature is sometimes late deciding so I will see over the next 2-4 weeks, and then make any changes to my prediction if need be then. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Quote: Looking at all the signs so far compared to other years at this time we are not going to have an epic winter What are the signs you refer to snowdude? Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 It's going to be huge in my part of Hokkaido. The powder of positive thinking Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Of course it's simply too early to tell, so if I was guessing now, my natural optimism would shine through and I'd forecast an epic winter. Basing weather predictions on stinkbugs, moss and the like is never accurate - except by occasional good luck Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 These winter forecasts are never as accurate as my earthquake predictions, which is a shame. Link to post Share on other sites
Greenroome 0 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Here's local Niseko meteorologist Brendon Eishold's call: In terms of what’s in store for the season, Eishold says it’s still crystal ball stuff but initial indicators were good. “One of the main indicators of whether it’s going to be a cold winter is snowfalls over Siberia in September and there’s pretty cold air over there currently with some reasonable snowfalls.†He said for the coming week there should be more falls up high on Friday and in to the weekend, and possibly even a little lower down the mountain. You Be-Youtei!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 It's pissing down and cold in the village today. Can't see Yotei but I'm guessing that there's snow falling up there. 1 deg drop in temp for each 100m gain in elevation (approx) would mean a +10 deg C temp in the village at 300m would equate to a -5 deg C temp at 1800m. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 If the JMA is to be trusted Hokkaido, Aomori, Niigata and Nagano will have a more-less normal winter, and the rest of Japan a slightly warm one. As for snowfall the same. This is in their Winter forecast, and it's still very early to say. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 tell that to my heater that went on last night when the temps dropped. Not super cold but the body cant take 25 degrees one day and 10 degrees the next. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I don't think anyone can say for sure what it'll be like at this stage, but it's fun to discuss in anticipation. The funny thing about those JMA season forecasts is that they use a system of probabilities which baffles me - 50% chance of having above average temperatures? Doesn't that equally mean a 50% chance of having below average temperatures as well? I hope somebody can put up a photo of Yotei once it's clear enough to see the summit... Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 If it has been snowing and continues to rain in the village and snow up there overnight, I'm going up tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites
foreversnow 5 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I was so depressed after reading Snowdude I packed my ski's back away and put on a sad face, But I'm going with local Mikepow and Greeneroom and keep doing my happy dance that it;s going to be a GREAT SEASON. Cause you know what a bad season in Niseko is still a great seasaon in NZ & AUS. Gotta go and get my ski's back out!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Originally Posted By: muikabochi Quote: Looking at all the signs so far compared to other years at this time we are not going to have an epic winter What are the signs you refer to snowdude? he consults his tea leaves, checks for the fecal habits of bugs and then pokes around the bunions of the obasan next door....all highly scientific Link to post Share on other sites
-30deg 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 You have to realise for Japan a bad season will blow away good seasons in NZ or AUS. However there is nothing like going out each day and skiing fresh powder..oh yes there is! Skiing fresh powder on each run because its dumping so hard its covered your tracks by the time you get to the top again.....ahhhhh I love Japan. Link to post Share on other sites
snowbender 3 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 If it wasn't just so damn cold though. (just kidding) (a bit) Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 staying shtum. Not gonna jinx it like last time. Link to post Share on other sites
snowbender 3 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 You just jinxed it! Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Yeah Thurs...you RUINED our March last year!! Link to post Share on other sites
2pints-mate 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 I'm going to make a claim if it turns out rubbish again - even if I am not there. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 I agree with skidaisuki, JMA forecasts and the percentage thing they have going on are ridiculous. In fact, for as far as I remember all their forecasts are alwasy for warmer than normal winter temperatures and less than average snowfalls, and that hasn't been the story always. Unless they are comparing with the especially cold winters of the 70s I don't understand why always they say warmer than normal. Well, maybe I do understand but this is not the place to go into political debates ;-) At the end of the day, nobody can predict the weather with any degree of accuracy as of today. This holds especially true for long term weather forecasts like the one I have given above. They are almost useless but like someone has said fun to discuss about when all resorsts are still closed and everyone is looking forward to the snow. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Ahh coldcat...another believer in the AGW conspiracy theories it seems? The JMA forecast is currently forecasting average temps (not warmer) and snowfall for most of the country for Dec-Feb. Admittedly this far out the chances of being accurate are not great. skidaisuki the current forecast shows 30:40:30 meaning the greatest probability is for average temps. It does mean of course there's a 30% chance either way it could be warmer or cooler. For a forecast for more than 2 months away the ridiculous thing would be to have more certainty. They will update the forecast monthly and we should see the figures firm up a bit as we get closer. For instance their forecast for Hokkaido from 27 Sept to 3 Oct is showing 60:30:10, so they're 90% sure the temps will be average or cooler. For the record last season they did predict lower than average snowfalls for Hokkaido and that certainly happened. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 During my first winter season, in Austria, a local sage offered the following pearl, 'the only people that predict the weather are fools and tourists' Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 26, 2008 Author Share Posted September 26, 2008 For those wondering where I get my predictions from, nature of course. If you can read natures signs and interpret them accurately then you can tell what the weather is going to be like, many many times more accurate then any computer will ever be. How do you think farmers predicted the weather years ago? My grandfather always knew how the seasons weather was going to be and even day to day weather, he was right 90+ percent of the time, which is were I learned it from. I don't think I have my grandfathers accuracy yet, but I am getting there, I still bet I can get the weather prediction more accurate than the weather forecasters can! Nature is far far more clever than any computer will ever be! Anyway we will see, and I a will update my prediction within a month or so if I see anything that tells me different. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 GoNative, average temperatures for most of the country??? Either we are looking at different maps or your "most of"-concept is quite different from what I would normally mean by "most of". As I understand this map, it actually says warmer than average for everything except for Hokkaido and Northerm Japan and that's what most people will understand by seing the map of japan in red. Then if you look at the numbers, there's the same chance (40%) of having a warm winter than a normal winter which it's like saying nothing at all so that's why it's ridiculous. By they way, every year they do the same. Like banks that never err on your side, JMA always err on the side of GW. And as far as last season goes, if they always say it's going to be warmer than average like they've been doing, it's logical that some times they will be right, but that doesn't say anything good about their way of predicting weather. Link to post Share on other sites
tsondaboy 0 Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 From my experience, when JMA guys say 40 % probability = BS. And thats not just about meteorological data, but about almost any data they use. Link to post Share on other sites
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