The new Cold War

[Curt 1]

I've been away from the news for a good part of the last week and just come back to todays news with Russia apparently warning Poland it might be the target of a nuclear strike. Nice. Russia sure seems to be flexing some muscles of late.

 

Worrying stuff.

[Ezorisu 0]

They're doing that "let's invade Georgia" thing too. They must be thinking that a war/threat of war somewhere will either stimulate their economy, give them access to some resource they don't currently have, or draw the proletariat's attention away from the failing policies at home.

[tsondaboy 0]

Russia doesn't really need resources, does she Ezo?

When polls give Putin 80% approval, I don't think he needs a war to draw attention elsewhere.

I am happy to see that balance is finally coming back. I didn't like the one superpower "I decide and I command" way that things have been dealt up to now.

 

[Ezorisu 0]

Not really sure Tsonda. Isn't there oil down there, or an oil pipeline?

 

Is Putin just "flexing his muscles" and trying to show Georgia who's boss?

 

It's really not my neck of the woods, so I am not up to date with what's going on over there.

[Fattwins 0]

Nato is push Russia into a corner and she flexing back. The last cold war was won because Russia went bankrupt. This time around Russia has much more money.

 

Poland and the Czech Republic are both going to get Us arms. Russia doesnt like that.

 

Georgia has been getting US arms as it tries to secure oil in the region.

 

Half of Georgia is Russian and wants no part of Georgia. (Remember Georgia started this maybe with US backing to force Poland to sign the arms deal)

 

This type of political mess favors the republicans in an election year

 

Russia isnt pleased that its friend Serbia lost 1/3 of its country and the heartland of where Serbs come from.

[Ezorisu 0]

I can see the political implications (both in Eastern Europe and elsewhere), but is there any economic benefit for the Russians?

[Fattwins 0]

The Russians can bankrupt America and drive up the price of Oil.

There is a fight to get the oil in the arctic as well. the new cold war is a game to control the resources of the world. He that controls them or has influence wins.

[tsondaboy 0]

Great benefit actually. Now that the oil prises went up and all western countries were seeing their economies to slow down, Russia's economy was strengthened by selling gas and oil into Europe. Dont forget it is the main seller of gas and higher prices means higher profits.

Through Georgia passes the only other alternative pipeline from Caspian sea towards the Mediterranean, which was shutdown during the hostilities. Which also means that everyone was buying from the only seller left in the territory aka Russia.

 

Did you notice who was the first western leader to go to Russia after the war stated?

[Fattwins 0]

the French PM I think.

 

Poland and Czech might just be a new cuban missile criss.

 

Here is a thought. Russia gets pissed off enough at the west, pissed off enough to send monitors in large amounts to Iran. America and Isreal then loose all leverage on the Nuke site. That will drive the price of oil up even higher.

[tsondaboy 0]

Isn't also a coincidence that the same guy together with the German PM blocked the NATO sanctions against Russia last week and also the expansion of NATO to Georgia and Ukraine a few months ago.

The two gas junkies holding hands with their dealer.

[Fattwins 0]

The US just sent 3 warships to the black sea.

[tsondaboy 0]

To do nothing. Not only that, but Turkey refused them to pass a US ship during the conflict from the Bosporus straights.

[Fattwins 0]

This is going to be a big one. I cant see Russia backing down. Russia will send troops to the border with Poland and more ships to play cat and mouse in the Black Sea. The US cant go to war with Russia and China will have a say once the Olympics are over.

[Curt 1]

New cold war? So be it, seems to be the next step...

 

Quote:

Russia's relations with the west plunged to their most critical point in a generation yesterday when the Kremlin built on its military rout of Georgia by recognising the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

 

Declaring that if his decision meant a new cold war, then so be it, President Dmitri Medvedev signed a decree conferring Russian recognition on Georgia's two secessionist regions. The move flouted UN security council resolutions and dismissed western insistence during the crisis of the past three weeks on respecting Georgia's territorial integrity and international borders.

 

Last night, Medvedev accused Washington of shipping arms to Georgia under the guise of humanitarian aid.

[Ezorisu 0]

The little dictator of the DPRK, Kim Jong Il just announced that he will rebuild the recently dismantled Yongbyon nuclear facility since the USA hasn't taken North Korea off the list of terror-sponsoring nations quickly enough. It's obviously political posturing with no intent to carry through.

 

Poor lil' Kim sees the USA turning its attention toward the situation in Georgia, and he wants to draw the world's attention back to himself. A little spoiled child throwing a tantrum to get some attention.

[Fattwins 0]

Kim only has one card to play but he does play the game rather well.

Both Kim, Putin (medvedev is a puppet) and Bush all want to infulence the election.

 

Russia could have waited 1 or 2 days before striking bakc against Geogia. It would have looked better. Geogia started an artillery barage that Russia could have played a better hand with.

 

Here is what Russia is going to do it is a simple game.

 

One they will at smoe point take the port of city of poti. That city is very close to the oil pipeline which if Russia controls will spike the price of oil.

 

Nato will put the maximun number of ships into the Black sea and then play cat and mouse. expect a good number of submarnie games that we will never see.

 

When the US brings this up at the UN russia will bring up Kosovo.

 

If more ships enter the black Sea Russia will mass troops to the boarders of the Ukraine and Poland.

 

If Russia does that Nato may push for fast membership into Nato. This is when things will get scary. Russia has a strong hand this time around and cna hurt America and Europe with oil.

 

the wild card is China. China has major problems like Russia with many possible break away regions. They will sit on the fence for as long as they can. In the end though I think that they will side with Russia.

 

This is going to be a messy game

 

Russia can further hurt the US economy by cutting imports

[Ezorisu 0]

Do you think China's economy is more dependent on Russia or the USA? I think that might determine which way they aim their rhetoric in the future.

 

(that's not a challenge - I really don't know)

[Fattwins 0]

China will back Russia in the end or just stay out of it. They have already given lukewarm assurances. China also needs oil and keeping Russia happy is important. America is a superpower with rapidly declining resources. Russia is a super power that finally has the money to tap the resources it has.