Niseko direct flights gone? Real estate impact?

[Markie 0]

Yeah, it's a van. The journey is usually about 7 hrs. and include a few pit-stops (piss-stops) and a 20 minute meal stop.

[thursday 1]

yo,

 

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/niseko-guide/niseko-services.html

 

Private Charter one way (up to 9 passengers) Chistose -> Niseko/Rusutsu = 40,000.

[Markie 0]

 Originally Posted By: Kingofmyrrh

I can wholeheartedly recommend the Tsondawagon.

I heard that that is one cool ride.....but only if you are deaf or if you don't mind more than 4 straight hours of drums!

[Tubby Beaver 209]

 Originally Posted By: 2pints,mate

 Quote:

when you get to Narita you can courier all your luggage to Hakuba and sit back on the super comfortable shinkansen and glide effortlessly around the Japanese countryside

...and then you need to lug your gear on the bus to Hakuba.

Let's not mislead now, shall we?

I wasn't, the courier service will deliver door to door, it doesn't go anywhere near the train. I'm not sure on the time it takes but its usually at your destination the following morning.
Takyubin service, just look for the Black Cat or the Pelican sign at Narita airport...no bus lugging involved

[2pints-mate 0]

 Originally Posted By: Tubby Beaver

There is no need to do that, when you get to Narita you can courier all your luggage to Hakuba and sit back on the super comfortable shinkansen and glide effortlessly around the Japanese countryside

I'm confused.

Is the shinkansen not a train?

[thursday 1]

yes it is. It's the bullet train and it is damn comfortable, like you are gliding across the Japanese countryside, effortlessly. And you can sit back.

 

But it is a bit slow. Try the Shanghai Maglev for speed.

[sunrise 0]

 Originally Posted By: Markie

 Originally Posted By: Kingofmyrrh

I can wholeheartedly recommend the Tsondawagon.

I heard that that is one cool ride.....but only if you are deaf or if you don't mind more than 4 straight hours of drums!

Or if you have an iPod with noise cancelling earbuds...

[sunrise 0]

But it's very comfy, a smooth ride, traffic's not bad and the company is good.

[JA2340 16]

 Originally Posted By: 2pints,mate

 Quote:

when you get to Narita you can courier all your luggage to Hakuba and sit back on the super comfortable shinkansen and glide effortlessly around the Japanese countryside

...and then you need to lug your gear on the bus to Hakuba.

Let's not mislead now, shall we?

How mislead??

If you use Takkyubin, you can have the gear sent to the location you want. We sent ski gear forward to Furano in Jan and the stuff was waiting at our accom when we arrived after a couple days sightseeing around. Just need to check witrh the accom that they can/will store the stuff until you get there.

[foreversnow 5]

Our trip couldn't have been easier. We flew into Narita - got off our plane got our luggage and then cleared customs and Transferred straight away to our Chitose flight - then straight on the bus to Niseko. It all worked out perfect as our flight got into Chitose about 10pm then we slept on the bus to Niseko and were up the next morning off skiing.

[2pints-mate 0]

thursday, yes I know that.

 

What confuses me is the talk of,

 

 Quote:

it doesn't go anywhere near the train

 

and then talk of the train.

 

Which is it?

 

If you look back at the flow of the thread you will see, it's too complicated to reporoduce once again.

[NoFakie 45]

The news reported that JAL and ANA raised the prices of internal flights in Japan by 9% on April 1st. Lots of other things, Sapporo beer included, went up as well.

 

From the prices mentioned for accom in Niseko though, I don't suppose 9% will make much difference to that demographic.

[Kingofmyrrh 0]

 Originally Posted By: 2pints,mate

thursday, yes I know that.

What confuses me is the talk of,

 Quote:

it doesn't go anywhere near the train

and then talk of the train.

Which is it?

If you look back at the flow of the thread you will see, it's too complicated to reporoduce once again.

You go on the train, your bags do not go on the train. You are reunited when you arrive at your hotel.

[thursday 1]

You go on the train, your bags go by black cat truck, you wait for your luggage at the accomodation.

[Fattwins 0]

It marketing switched to HK and china cause they golf!

[tripitaka 0]

Apparently, Niseko ski holidays are also being marketed heavily in NZ newspapers. Rumors of the collusion between Aussie airlines and the property investors seem far fetched but who knows. I think if the property market tanks in Australia, you might see some impact in Niseko. You wonder how well some of these foreign investors really understand Japanese property.

[HelperElfMissy 42]

 Originally Posted By: tripitaka

You wonder how well some of these foreign investors really understand Japanese property.

Most of the buyers are just purchasing to own thier own piece of the paradise - they are happy enough if they can resell it without a loss. There are a few making a big investment, but I am sure they have done the research.

[tripitaka 0]

 Originally Posted By: Mamabear

 Originally Posted By: tripitaka

You wonder how well some of these foreign investors really understand Japanese property.

Most of the buyers are just purchasing to own thier own piece of the paradise - they are happy enough if they can resell it without a loss. There are a few making a big investment, but I am sure they have done the research.

Mama, you show me anywhere in Japan where you can buy a property and resell it without a loss. If you can, I will eat my hat.... and then my shoes. Yes, some people have made a big investment. Those are the developers. Those are the people making the money. It's definitely not the buyers.

[stillnoprogress 0]

triptaka don't be a coconut. The nationwide land px survey was out on March 24th...

 

Nationwide 2007 residential land prices increased 1.3% (+0.1% in 2006) and commercial land prices increased 3.8% (+2.3%) for a second year of nationwide land price growth after prices ended their 16-year downtrend in 2006. Growth slowed in the three major metropolitan areas and major regional centers in 2H 2007 and prices appear to have quickly approached ceiling levels. Private-sector surveys have showed that residential land prices in Tokyo's 23 wards fell in the Oct 2007-Jan 2008 period, so the latest figures were no surprise.

 

3-major urban centres - commercial prices +10.4% YoY vs 8.9% a year ago. residential +4.3% vs 2.8% last year.

For Greater Tokyo commercial is 12.2% vs 9.4% last year.

For central Tokyo (23 wards) commercial is 17.3% vs 15.9% last year.

[Stuntcok 0]

Those figures actually make the strength in high end buildings weaker as they aggregate includes outdated stock that is not holding their value (pencil buildings etc). Some of the newest residential and office buildings in central Tokyo have almost doubled in value. For instance, the developments in Akasaka Green Park, and Mid Town have made a lot of money for the those who invested (and then sold).

[tripitaka 0]

SNP, land prices are only one component of the costs of owning a property. Talk to anyone who has an understanding of Japanese property and they will know what I'm talking about. Successful property investors are usually developers, not buyers.

 

Granted, there are a few property developers sitting on land in Tokyo (and Niseko) who have made a buck from land transactions, but this doesn't relate to a foreigner picking up a condo in a ski resort that will be empty for 2/3 of the year!!

[tripitaka 0]

 Originally Posted By: Stuntcok

Those figures actually make the strength in high end buildings weaker as they aggregate includes outdated stock that is not holding their value (pencil buildings etc). Some of the newest residential and office buildings in central Tokyo have almost doubled in value. For instance, the developments in Akasaka Green Park, and Mid Town have made a lot of money for the those who invested (and then sold).

Are you sure about those buildings have "doubled" in value? Roppongi Hills has actually fallen in value. If you follow any of the large REITs, you will know that property in Japan is struggling big time. Sumitomo Realty is currently around 2000 yen per share after being at 5000 yen per share at the start of 2007!

[Stuntcok 0]

It does not follow that because the shares of a listed entity have fallen that the value of the underlying assets have as well. In the case of listed REITs and RE companies, share valuations have contracted against stable or growing NAVs. In the case of the REITs they have increased their equity ratios, which have diluted returns.

 

The problem with RE companies in Japan is that they do not trade their book and, as such, do not crystalise capital gains. How has Roppongi hills fallen in value? Since when? It has never traded nor, due to being on the balance sheet of a private company, has it ever been marked to market. I am sure this is based on an unofficial apprasial or something like that. Whatever the case, I would be willing to bet a lot of money that, were Mori to sell Roppongi hills to a property fund they would book a large gain.

 

I mentioned Mid Town and Akasaka Green because they were not held exclusively by a asset gathering RE developer like Mori or Mit Estate but bought, built and sold by a consortium of companies, one of which was Sekisiu House, who provided project finance. I am too lazy to look up the exact numbers but roughly 15% stakes contributed to hundreds of millions of dollars in capital gains for Sekisui in these types of projects. I do remember gains on some 3 year real estate holdings exceeding 30%.

 

When I said some property has doubled in value that was a bit of hyperbole as the only property that has seen that kind of (appraised) valuation gains that I know of have been in the Otemachi area post a change in zoning alowing higher plot ratios and the changing of air rights laws. In fact, JR East made 4 billion dollars selling air rights (which is real estate) in the past 10 years.

 

I should get back to work

[tripitaka 0]

Interesting Stunts. You have to ask yourself why the real estate industry is doing so poorly if there is so much potential out there.

 

Anyway, what you're saying supports what I initially said: the money is made by corporations in the development stage, definitely not in private investment and "buy and hold."

[Rag-Doll 0]

 Originally Posted By: tripitaka

Apparently, Niseko ski holidays are also being marketed heavily in NZ newspapers. Rumors of the collusion between Aussie airlines and the property investors seem far fetched but who knows. I think if the property market tanks in Australia, you might see some impact in Niseko. You wonder how well some of these foreign investors really understand Japanese property.

A couple of things. Magaret Jackson is definitely married to one of the guys involved in Hanazono. She no longer works for QANTAS, he is no longer involved in Hanazono, QANTAS no longer flies directly to Sapporo. These are facts, why the change in flight schedules is open to speculation.


The Niseko property market bears no relation to the general property market in Japan - other than the fact they're both coming off a very low base. Thus whether the Niseko investors understand the Japanese property market is largely irrelevant. The investors in Niseko are largely based ex-Japan and for that reason their ability to buy, hold or need to sell is driven by very different factors to those being applied to the rest of the property market in Japan. As for who is making money in Niseko - that's an old issue that has been hashed and re-hashed and then hashed some more so I won't go over it again, but I will point out that as far as buyers of end products are concerned, those buying into resorts/holiday places are probably only half interested in what the resale price is, because it is rarely anything spectacular. I reckon most people buy in these places because, well, like someone said above, it's buying the dream.

The biggest impact on property prices in Niseko will be if the Asian economy and particularly Aust, HK, PRC, etc completely tank, then you'll see visitor numbers drop and people needing to liquidate assets and sell apartments. I don't think even the interest rate increases will force many people to sell. If you've got enough cash/equity to stump out as collateral for a loan to buy one of those places, a few % points on the mortgage is only going to be an inconvenience.