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Looking as though we might have a significant rain event over the weekend (or at least really wet snow and sleet) mad.gif

 

Going into next week it should cool down again and we'll hopefully get plenty of snow, it's just we shouldn't be getting any rain at this time of year at all!!

 

Currently in Niseko it's not looking that much better than last season at the same time. Really hope Jan, Feb and Mar bring it on big time...

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GN -Merry christmas - I've been watching that system for a few days now and the only good news is

 

a. it will snow after the rain

b. the maps are becoming more encouraging

 

Looking at the GFS/COLA maps , the 29th/30th has changed to a slightly more optimistic situation. Even this morning there was a whole heap of moisture in front of the 540 line with the 540 line above/behind Hirafu. The recently updated maps at least have the 540 line below Hirafu. So hopefully it will be as you say wet snow/sleet.

 

I think we're looking at rain in the village and snow on the hill.

 

Big fingers crossed for further improvement.

 

Edit 26/12/07 - Looking nasty again.

 

(These will update, so only valid for 6-12hrs))

 

ea3.24hr.png

 

ea2.24hr.png

 

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Yeah really hoping the forecast keeps improving. Last season at around this time we had a heavy fall of rain and lost around 30cm of cover. Fingers crossed it doesn't occur again this year.

 

And yeah I probably should have waited until after Christmas before discussing such depressing things.

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I arrive Friday and when I got there in January this year it was also raining followed by a huge snow event.

 

One thing I learned over my years of skiing is I really don't care it will snow when its ready.

 

There is a lot more snow now then this time last year GN from what I read, Christmas last year was only about 80cm. If it rains well there are heaps of other exciting activities in the area.

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We only have 90cm in the village atm ASB so it's not all that much difference at all...

 

This year came a little earlier and we've had better snow quality than last year but in total depth by the end of the month don't think there'll be all that much difference.

 

Halfmachine, think we might wait couple more days to see how the forecasts firm up before predicting freezing levels.

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If I check other sites like Yahoo Japan weather (I'm hoping it's OK to post this link as it's just for informational purposes)

 

http://weather.yahoo.co.jp/weather/jp/leisure/ski/1b/11717.html

 

then it seems OK (wet snow followed by dry snow). Are they just overly optimistic?

 

Is there some resource where I can learn to read weather maps? I just about figured out how to read charts for surfing but I wouldn't have a clue for snow or other weather informaion.

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King in the chart above you can see the bold 540 line. Very basically this line shows the freezing level at around 1400-1500m. So on that chart you can see that the freezing level at Niseko will be above the top of Mt Annupuri, indicating that it would definitely rain at lower levels. We're all hoping that the major part of the precipitation won't hit until the colder air starts moving over the region.

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These systems can be tricky to forecast. If they track just slightly differently it can make all the difference between a huge dump and rain.

 

Just checked and now they are forecasting the cold air to come a little earlier so maybe a little rain to begin with from later on Saturday but hopefully rapidly turning to snow by Sunday.

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Go Native - thanks as ever for your informed updates.

 

I'm spending the next week in Hakuba and all the weather forecasts I have seen are talking about lower temperatures and snow from Saturday / Sunday.

 

Could this be a rare case where Hokkaido gets rain and Honshu gets snow? That's not how I interpret the charts, but I trust your judgement more than my own...

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The colder air will probably hit down south earlier than up here. As the air is circulating anticlockwise around the low pressure sytem the warm air will still be pushing up into Hokkaido as the cooler air is moving across Honshu. As the system moves further east and strengthens in the Pacific then we'll see the classic winter setup with a low off NE Hokkaido and high pressure over Siberia. The result will be a week or so of cold temps and lots of snow. Pretty much everywhere might see a little rain out of this system but the snow following will more than make up for it.

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ea4.48hr.png

 

Well here is the latest forecast from COLA for Saturday. You can see how there will be cooler air moving over Kyushu before it reaches northern Honshu. Timing is difficult as it all depends on exactly what course the system takes.

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You have to look very hard to find Japan on that map. This is the one I use.

 

japansnow72.fca3.jpg

 

The colour code shows the nature an amount of precipitation, and the red contours the height above sea level of 0C. As Go Native says, timing depends entirely on when the cold air mass moves across.

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Forecast keeps getting better and better. They are now not forecasting rain to fall on Sat. The forecast has a little snow Friday night and easing to just a cloudy afternoon on Sat. Here's hoping!

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