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Hakuba > Matsumoto > Shizuoka - the fault


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I cant say when but that area can easily produce earthquakes bigger than M 7. shifty.gif

Especially the faults segments passing through Matsumoto city.

The problem is that it has a very long repeatation rate, more than 800 years so cant make any prediction at all about when.

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I'll do my best. Here's a new one.

 

THERE WILL BE A STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN WEST JAPAN (SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KYUSHU AND SHIZUOKA) OF AT LEAST MAGNITUDE 4.2, SOMETIME BETWEEN TONIGHT AND 31ST JULY 2008. PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD MAKE ALL THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

 

Take care!

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I watched a really good doco today about the increase of activity in the ring of fire, with focus on Japan (especially the fault through Tokyo) and one off the coast of Seattle that is supposed to have been the cause of the 'Orphan Tsunami' of 1700 that swept away villages on the East Coast of Japan without warning or apparent cause...and that one is supposed to blow again soon (geologically speaking) at thereabouts of a M 9!

 

Interestingly they postulated that rising sea levels (or even the rising sea pressure in winter) had a big impact on increasing seismic and volcanic activity....and with melting glaciers we might well be entering a period of unprecedented seismic/vulcan activity.

 

Now GG...have you taken this into account? Do you perhaps wish to increase your predictions?

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 Originally Posted By: Mamabear
I watched a really good doco today about the increase of activity in the ring of fire,


I can safely say that there is definitely seismic activity EVERY Sunday morning in my ring of fire!!! lol.gif
Its brutal!!
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the increase of activity in the ring of fire

 

Seismic activity has only been formally monitored in a proper scientific manner since the 1950s. The rationale behind this was to monitor tests of nuclear weapons. Nuclear explosions can be easily identified using focal plane solutions.

 

Major earthquakes in a given area occur on time scales of 100's to 10's of thousands of years. To extrapolate 50 years of data to 10,000 years is the same as a blind man describing a horse from one hair from the tail. Anyone claiming "an increase of activity in the ring of fire" is guilty of wilful bullshit.

 

Glacio-eustacy is a very complex area. The Earth's crust is a flexible skin over a fluid substrate, like skin on a coffee. If you push it down in one place, the displaced fluid pushes the skin up in another. Loading with water or ice causes the crust to subside in some areas and rise in others. Unloading causes the reverse, on a scale of 1,000's to 10's of thousands of years. The Earth's glaciated areas are still recovering from deglaciation 15,000 years ago, and the coastal areas are still responding to the additional load of 120 metres of seawater.

 

Crustal adjustment definitely causes seismic activity, but you need to use instruments to measure it. Major earthquakes and tsunamis are the product of plate tectonics, not the fevered imagination of global warming carpetbaggers.

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As far as I go ... I find them all interesting theories - the GW, the Vulcanology, the study of seismic activity - all very very interesting - all very very mysterious, but they are just that I suppose - THEORIES. I love it when there are 'new' connections that I had never heard about before. Like the Cascadia fault experiencing a full length megathrust eathquake that caused the 1700 "Orphan" Tsunami - a huge distance away.

 

At this point the scientists on this particular doco posed theories, but all said they really couldn't know anything - that despite being able to look back fairly well - they are still a long long way from 'prediction'.

 

I think this is a much more honest approach than what is happening with the GW debate. But I did think it was interesting that they presented a theory that thier may indeed be increases in Geological activity as a direct result of GW. It was also of interest to me that the vulcanologists were using Ice Core Samples to look back at seismic/vulcan events that predated recordings.

 

But yes... I mentioned this less for the educational aspect and more to give old earthquake predictor GG a bit if a RAZZ!

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