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It wasn't as huge a difference on the mountain, but lots of town level resorts especially were really having a hard time - even in February when there is usually meters of snow out there.

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  • SnowJapan Admin

Here's "the telephone box" on 2nd Feb 07

 

YuzawaNow_608.JPG

 

And on Jan 20th 06

 

YuzawaNow_341.jpg

 

Last season an extreme, in the same way the season before was another extreme (but the other way round!)

 

More on the phonebox here:

http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/243828#Post243828

 

\:\)

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That first picture is unbelievable!! i have never seen that much snow in my life!! The best was getting waist deep snow for about 1 month when I was about 14!! Please let it be tons of snow!!

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December '05 was dreamland - totally hardcore. It reached the stage where people were praying for it to stop. I remember arriving at Yuzawa in mid December and even at town level everything was disappearing.

 

Much as I'd like to see that kind of mega dump again, it's pretty mean to wish it on those old folk living up in the mountains and having to deal with it daily, so I hope it is plenty on the ski jos and a manageable amount in the valleys. The Japanese Met Office is saying that the new season will be average and that should make everyone happy after last year.

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my 2 cents...this might be technical but, ahh, whatever, i did this for me since i'm coming over...

 

** The Sea

 

were in La Nina right now - heres the current SST anomalies

 

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.19.2007.gif

 

note the region around Japan! Warm ocean = lots more moisture. SST anomalies tend to stick around for a while so i imagine you'll have enhanced moisture fluxes over Japan for at least the next month, and probably the season..the question is, will this warm ocean warm the air? The JMA thinks so...

 

** The Atmosphere

 

This is a lot harder to forecast because, unlike the ocean, the atmosphere changes rapidly. So we need to look back at history and see what usually happens. Firstly, La Nina in the atmosphere is signified by MSLP differences between Darwin and Tahiti (yes the tropics is a big player in the mid-latitdue weather!). This measure is known as the SOI and is positive for La Nina, negative for El Nino.

 

e.g. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

So the atmosphere is starting to 'La Nina' with positive SOI values but it ain't strong in the atmosphere yet...

 

** What does La Nina Mean for Japan Snow?

 

Some La Nina episodes during Nov-Feb (ie ski season) in the near past are the seasons of

 

05/06

99/00

98/99

88/89

 

Now - heres the GOODIES

 

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.different.html

 

click on precipitation for 'L' (La Nina) for the months of Dec, Jan, Feb. These plots show anomalies (departures from long term averages) of what La Nina's off the past look like. You'll note that, on average, there IS MORE precipitation (hopefully falling as snow) but is is variable, sometimes just average, sometimes below.

 

** What is the JMA forecasting

 

The JMA are forecasting warm temps and increased rain for the next month but are not making any bets on the season.

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/longfcst/

 

there probably waiting for the SOI to go strongly positive...

 

** Summary

 

- We are in an oceanic La Nina

- The atmosphere is starting to respond to La Nina.

- *IF* we go into a full blown La Nina, the main island of japan has a tendency to get more precipitation (hopefully as snow, not rain)

 

My guess is that we will go into La Nina and then have a 30% (1 in 3) chance of higher than average snowfall. Could be warmer than average, especially on Hokkaido.

 

cheers, lp

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