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 Quote:
Originally posted by rahul bhatnagar:

THERE WILL BE AN EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU OR NORTH-EASTERN HONSHU ON 27/28 MAY 2006 OF MAGNITUDE 5.7 TO 6.4 ON RICHTER SCALE.
6.3 on the 27th near the city of Yogyakarta in Indonesia.

All but the location, Rahul. Not bad. I, for one, am glad you were wrong about that (although it is still the 28th here in Tokyo), but my heart goes out to those in Indonesia.

It has been proven that all sorts of animal and marine life can somehow sense beforehand or "predict" earthquakes and run for cover minutes before it even occurs miles away at the epicenter. If scientists still haven't figured out how animal prescience of earthquakes works, and still can only predict earthquakes to within 50 years (Oooh, aahh) , why do we still use hard "science" as the only standard of earthquake prediction?

Thanks Rahul. Keep your predictions coming. I'd like to be psychologically prepared for a major earthquake, even if it turns that the psychological preparation isn't necessary.

Whether Rahul was/is wrong or right about a big one hitting Japan this time, hope you all have your earthquake kits prepared.
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Here's a table of earthquakes greater than magnitude 6 in the Asia Pacific area for the past month.

 

29/04/2006 16:58 11..........6.6........ "NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KORYAKIA, RUSSIA"

30/04/2006 08:17 151........6.1.........VANUATU

30/04/2006 19:17 8........... 6.7........."OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE"

30/04/2006 21:40 18......... 6.5........."OFFSHORE ATACAMA, CHILE"

03/05/2006 15:26 55..........7.9........ TONGA

04/05/2006 11:25 11..........6...........TONGA

06/05/2006 18:26 10..........6...........MID-INDIAN RIDGE

07/05/2006 14:17 10..........6.1........ MID-INDIAN RIDGE

07/05/2006 15:21 35..........6...........TONGA

10/05/2006 02:42 18..........6.4........ "FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA"

16/05/2006 10:39 152........7.4.........KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

16/05/2006 15:28 12..........6.8........ "NIAS REGION, INDONESIA"

17/05/2006 03:06 10..........6...........TONGA

19/05/2006 14:44 54..........6.2........ MOLUCCA SEA

22/05/2006 11:12 16.5.......6.6........."NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KORYAKIA, RUSSIA"

22/05/2006 13:08 183.3......6.2........"KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA"

22/05/2006 20:53 2.7.........6.1........ BANDA SEA

24/05/2006 10:11

26/05/2006 22:54 35..........6.3........ "JAVA, INDONESIA"

28/05/2006 03:12 39.2.......6.2........."NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA"

 

source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/index.php?old=japan.html

 

If you count anywhere in the area as "north-eastern Honshu", then there have been 19. I'm no betting man, but I reckon the odds of randomly picking an earthquake greater than magnitude 6 on any two days are a lot better than even.

 

Perhaps the question should be turned around and Rahul should explain why his method failed to predict 18 earthquakes. The scientific method requires applying a test to a theory and seeing if it passes or fails. If we test "can these predictions be attributed to chance?" then we see that they may, and that the predictions have no value.

 

Tohoku bum, you are doing science a disservice by selecting only the evidence which supports Rahul's claims, and ignoring that which does not. The reports of animal prescience predicting earthquakes are controversial, and not universal. It is certainly not proven.

 

(Edit. A 5.7 crept into the table, so I've removed it and changed 20 to 19).

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I am well aware of the sheer number of large earthquakes occurring constantly along fault lines, and I'm no champion of astrology, but. . .

 

From your list, eliminate all the ones that aren't located close enough to major population concentrations to wreak havok on that population (which is the entire point of earthquake prediction in the first place) and the odds suddenly drop quite drastically. If international news coverage is any indication, then the number couldn't be more than 4 or 5 any given year.

 

Granted, a 6.3 wouldn't wreak nearly as much havok in Japan as it would in many other countries, but it would certainly result in enough damage and disruption to want to know about it ahead of time.

 

In the history of science and medicine DISbelief, time and time again, has been as much of a factor in clouding objective study and preventing the advancement of scientific/medical knowledge as belief has been.

 

Do I believe in astrology? No. But do I blindly disbelieve it in the name of science? No. The FBI uses psychics with enough success to continue using them. Why don't earthquake centers give it a try at least until hard science can do a little better than "within the next fifty years" in Tokyo?

 

Yes, there are a lot of scam artists trying to make a buck off peoples' beliefs, but Rahul gave his warning and asked nothing in return. Why mock him?

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quote:Originally posted by rahul bhatnagar:

 

THERE WILL BE AN EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU OR NORTH-EASTERN HONSHU ON 27/28 MAY 2006 OF MAGNITUDE 5.7 TO 6.4 ON RICHTER SCALE.

 

Rahul. No magnitude 5.7 or greater earthquakes in Japan for this period. You are wrong.

 

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia_eqs.php

 

Tohoku bum wrote:

"It has been proven that all sorts of animal and marine life can somehow sense beforehand or "predict" earthquakes and run for cover minutes before it even occurs miles away at the epicenter. If scientists still haven't figured out how animal prescience of earthquakes works, and still can only predict earthquakes to within 50 years (Oooh, aahh) , why do we still use hard "science" as the only standard of earthquake prediction? "

 

I am a geoscientist. Who is mocking whom?

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Soubriquet, sorry. That statement was not intended to insult, but to point out the potential dangers of mocking Rahul in the name of science and common sense (as everyone on the list was doing).

 

Geoscience is an extremely valuable tool in earthquake prediction. But it should not be considered the only tool. It is extremely unfortunate that mathematical modeling requires enormous data, resources, manpower, and time and will likely not produce meaningful results within our lifetime, but I am not suggesting in any way that your current efforts are not extremely valuable in the long run.

 

You study the earth, I study the history of science and medicine. I am constantly amazed at the number of effective healing techniques that have been dismissed out of hand merely because the mechanism behind those techniques just can't be explained by scientific models of a given time.

 

E.g., Accupuncture seemed silly, so western scientists and doctors just concluded it had no scientific merit and lambasted it for centuries as backwards Eastern mysticism unworthy of scientific inquiry. When researchers finally decided to study it using the scientific method, they were forced to concede that yes, there were many undeniable applications in which it worked effectively that had nothing to do with the placebo effect.

 

To my knowledge, nobody has ever studied the statistical accuracy of, shall we say, "unconventional" means of earthquake prediction. It may turn out to be $hite in the end, but I have grown extremely wary of thinking something is $hite from the very beginning on the grounds that it does not seem "scientific."

 

Whatever, I don't want to argue. Rahul, Sobriquet, I find value in both of your work.

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Thanks for that Tohoku bum. I wasn't offended, so no problems.

 

I don't pretend that science has all the answers, and I don't believe that science is anywhere near being able to produce robust predictive models. (Tsondaboy knows a lot more about this than me, because he is active in the field of seismology.) I also don't dismiss "alternative" philosophies because they don't fit into a western philosophical model, or we don't understand the mechanism. But whatever the procedure or philosophy, to be of value, it has to be demonstrated that the positive results are not simply chance.

 

What Rahul is doing is using astrology to attempt to predict earthquakes. When they don't occur, he ignores the failure, and on the rare occasions he does get it right, he claims success for his method. He cannot demonstrate that his successes are anything other than lucky guesses. This is why he is mocked on this forum. I'm not mocking him simply pointing out his failures.

 

If you want to see his failures, you can trawl through this thread:

 

http://www.snowjapanforums.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi/topic/8/4289.html?

 

Good luck.

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Soub, I haven't really followe Rahul's stuff too closely. Is he using astrology to make his predictions? Where did you find that? Just curious, cos I had been wondering what he was basing them on...

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I told you before I am the most effective at these predictions. Proof is that I always tell my mum (and mums never lie).

 

Here is my next prediction.

 

THERE WILL BE AN EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU (OR SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD) BETWEEN 29 MAY & 29 JUNE 2006 OF MAGNITUDE 6.0 OR MORE ON RICHTER SCALE.

 

I suggest you hold on to your beds (or whatever that was) and take the necessary precautions.

 

Seriously, as soubs mentioned rahul never seems to admit to mistakes in his predictions but grasps at straws to announce "successful" predictions.

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Just gave you a big NO vote there rahul. What you think about that?

 

I'm all for your predictions rahul, it's interesting, but it would help your cause if you actually said something after one of your UNSUCCESSFUL FORECASTS. ;\)

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hello mr sanjo,

sorry for late reply.as you know i predicted an earthquake on 27/28 may 2006 which didnt occur.sorry for this failure,i have to work hard on these moderate earthquakes as you know i am pretty busy on doing research on other topics from jan 2006 onwards and not been able to give my 100% for earthquake predictions.as far as strong one are concerned i can predict them more

accurately.so i want to say for my next prediction that i am 100% sure that there will be a strong earthquake in japan on the days predicted by me in june though there can be 2 or 3 days gap from the predicted dates sometimes but earthquake will surely occur and will be strongest of this year till date.tsunami is also likely to occur after this quake.as you know not a single earthquake above magnitude 6.0 has occured in japan after 17 dec 2005 which was predicted by me.i dont predict every week or day.i dont say that i can predict each and every earthquake but as you know 4 to 5 strong earthquake occur in japan annually from which i can predict 3 to 4 i think it is more than enough.till date my success rate is 75%,in 25% cases i have missed earthquakes more than predicting them wrongly.

for past 10 or 12 days i was working on my next prediction and wanted to be 100% sure before posting any reply on this forum.

mr,sanjo you have already voted on yes on this poll earlier now you cant vote on no as you can vote only once. \:\)

i am not getting the support which i should have got after so many correct predictions its pretty depressing.its very easy to criticize someone.my predictions are considered mere lucky guesses inspite of the fact they are so accurate.

but people who try to demoralize me have thought even once that can they predict even one earthquake in japan of above 6.0 on richter scale exact on date or with 1 or 2 days gap for an earthquake.instead of giving some useless calculation or drawings or merely calculating magnitude after an earthquake occur is of no use they should try to predict earthquakes accurately and stop criticizing those who attempt to predict.

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hello mr sanjo,

sorry for late reply.as you know i predicted an earthquake on 27/28 may 2006 which didnt occur.sorry for this failure,i have to work hard on these moderate earthquakes as you know i am pretty busy on doing research on other topics from jan 2006 onwards and not been able to give my 100% for earthquake predictions.as far as strong one are concerned i can predict them more

accurately.so i want to say for my next prediction that i am 100% sure that there will be a strong earthquake in japan on the days predicted by me in june though there can be 2 or 3 days gap from the predicted dates sometimes but earthquake will surely occur and will be strongest of this year till date.tsunami is also likely to occur after this quake.as you know not a single earthquake above magnitude 6.0 has occured in japan after 17 dec 2005 which was predicted by me.i dont predict every week or day.i dont say that i can predict each and every earthquake but as you know 4 to 5 strong earthquake occur in japan annually from which i can predict 3 to 4 i think it is more than enough.till date my success rate is 75%,in 25% cases i have missed earthquakes more than predicting them wrongly.

for past 10 or 12 days i was working on my next prediction and wanted to be 100% sure before posting any reply on this forum.

mr,sanjo you have already voted on yes on this poll earlier now you cant vote on no as you can vote only once. \:\)

i am not getting the support which i should have got after so many correct predictions its pretty depressing.its very easy to criticize someone.my predictions are considered mere lucky guesses inspite of the fact they are so accurate.

but people who try to demoralize me have thought even once that can they predict even one earthquake in japan of above 6.0 on richter scale exact on date or with 1 or 2 days gap for an earthquake.instead of giving some useless calculation or drawings or merely calculating magnitude after an earthquake occur is of no use they should try to predict earthquakes accurately and stop criticizing those who attempt to predict.

and hats of to mr.tsodaboy who being a siesmologist never criticize my method or predictions and encouraged me to give more and more correct predictions. clap.gif thanks for your support.

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Quote: "hello guys,

i am back with a new prediction and my next prediction is-

 

THERE WILL BE A STRONG EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN SOUTH-WESTERN HONSHU (NANKAIDO) OR EASTERN HONSHU ON 14,18 OR 23\24 DECEMBER 2005 ON EITHER OF THESE DATES BUT MOST PROBABLY ON 23\24 DECEMBER 2005 BETWEEN TIME (5 TO 7 A.M.) OR (5 TO 7 P.M.) OF MAGNITUDE BETWEEN (6.5 TO 8.5) ON RICHTER SCALE.

TSUNAMI CAN ALSO OCCUR BY THIS EARTHQUAKE.

 

so people living in japan please take precautions on 23\24 december 2005 and avoid going to coastal areas of japan on these dates."

 

http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php/topic/8/4289/13.html

 

An earthquake occurred off the coast of Miyagi on 27th December at 00.32 local time (18.32 GMT).

 

Year, Month, Day, Time(hhmmss.mm)UTC, Latitude, Longitude, Magnitude, Depth

2005, 12, 16,183216.42, 38.51, 141.90, 6.0, 42

 

source: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/index.php?old=japan.html

 

Your prediction can only be considered correct if you discount it being on the wrong day at the wrong time and of the wrong magnitude :rolleyes:

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there was earthquake on 17 dec 2005 only with 1 day gap in eastern honshu of 6.2 on richter scale though less than what i predict but much powerfull to cause injury to people living in that area.check these pages-

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4257896

 

and

 

http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/2239/2005-12-17/64@288114.htm

 

magnitude 6.2 is no less dangerous as same intensity earthquake have killed more than 5000 people in indonesia.i have pointed so many times that predict earthquakes of more than 6.0 on richter scale which can cause loss to both life and property.

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I'm glad we can agree that there was a magnitude 6 (or 6.2) earthquake in the early hours of 17th December. I have checked my calendar though, and December 17th did not occur on December 14th, 18th or 23/24th. 02.32am does not occur between 5-7am or 5-7pm on my clock either.

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I still dont get why Rahul predicts 14th,18th or 23rd. It makes no sense to me. If he said 'between 14th and 16th' I could accept it. But when he picks random dates he sounds like an astrologer or something.

 

Popper said something like a theory can only be respected as science if it reliably and consistently tells us about what will happen in the future. Anything vague or inaccurate, e.g. 'you will encounter a tall and dark stranger this week', is not science.

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 Quote:
Originally posted by rahul bhatnagar:
hello friends,
i am back again and my next prediction for japan is-
THERE WILL BE AN EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN IN EASTERN HONSHU OR NORTH-WEST HONSHU ON 14/15 OR 21 NOVEMBER 2005 ON EITHER OF THESE DATES BUT MOST PROBABLY ON 14/15 NOVEMBER 2005 BETWEEN TIME( 3 TO 5 A.M.OR 3 TO 5 P.M.)OF MAGNITUDE (5.7 TO 7.0) ON RICHTER SCALE.
so people living in japan take precautions on 14/15 november.hope this time you all will take my predictions seriously.
this 14/15 must fall on 14/15 of your calender. lol.gif
check this page-

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2005/usfkbr/
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Congratulations. Now will you make a table with all of your predictions, and with the relevant USGS data for the dates and magnitudes. Then run a statistical test (Chi square I think, or Fisher, it's been a long time) and demonstrate that the result is not by chance.

 

Feel free to post it here. I'd be very interested to see the results \:\)

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