All the long term reports have called for a warm dry winter season as there is yet another El Nino developing in the southern hemisphere. Well we hope that this is mother nature’s way of saying that the Meteorologist doesn't decide on the weather, yet.

So what can we expect from this coming season in the mountains of Japan? Well those of us who have a hard time leaving the Japanese winters know that we are never short of snow in the Alps or Hokkaido, 12 meters of accumulated snow fall, on average, falls on the Hakuba mountains every year. What we want to know is when it will come and what the temperatures will be like, as this is lately not an easy thing to forecast anywhere in the world with weather patterns becoming, well, unpatterned.

The Hakuba locals, I have come to acknowledge, have a very astute understanding of the natural patterns of the mountains that they have made home for centuries. They are people who have had to live in sync with nature or die under her sometimes harsh hand. People who until this day, myself included, live in homes built from large trees, mud, paper and single pane windows with little or no insulation and central heating (what’s that?). These people do not plant, harvest or ready for winter by the calendar but by natural cycles and occurrences. They are the local almanac.

I have timed the first snow fall in Hakuba for seven years from what the local farmers have told me and never been more than a few days off. The story goes that the first snow to fall in the valley is a month after the first dusting of the peaks of the local mountains.  The first snow of the season on the peaks this year was October 6th which puts this years snow to the valley about a week early. This, you might say is not that odd - a week, a few days in the scheme of things it's pretty much the same, but the thing that is different this year is the amount, the intensity and the fact that after a day of broken cloud we still have 10cms left on the ground in the valley.

We had the seasons usual sleet mixed with rain yesterday which is the usual warning that winter is on the way and this is normally in mid November. Then we usually get snow sticking on the ground by the beginning of December and there is no holding winter back by mid December. So where am I going with all of these stats then?

In my book I would say that winter will come a month early. Saying this, however, I have now heard stories that an early unexpected snowfall, such as this one, is a sign of a warm season, called Dantoh. So this puts us right back in the same confused spot that we started out with. Will we have a long winter full of tasty face shots or will we have a dry short season where every turn should be savored?  At this point it seems like any ones guess. All I know at this point is that the mountains are painted white with snow and it's only the end of October.

I was really quite jealous of a friend who just popped by wearing ski pants and a big grin who said that he had just made his first turns of the season after hiking up Hakuba 47 while I had been sitting here writing this all day. He said the turns were a bit heavy and nothing to boast about but I think he was just trying to make me feel better. All I know is that there was lots of it and they were turns just the same. Turns that I didn't lay down.

Here's hoping that the Old Farmers of the valley and the Meteorologists have got this season pegged wrong and we see plentiful powder dayz for 2002-2003.

Whatever we are graced with this winter, let's play safe out on the slopes and take extra caution out in the back country. Every year in Japan avalanches take the lives of 8-10 people on average and changing weather and other accidents take further lives of back country recreationalists and professionals alike. Don't let yourself become just another statistic - get training or go with some one who knows the dangers and how to avoid them.

There are many things at work in the winter mountains and lots of things to think about other than just how good the snow is to ride. There are layers within the snow that have not bonded well or over time lose there bond with the layers around them that we must be very careful of when riding in terrain steeper than 30 degrees. We also must take into consideration not only grad of slope but shape, size and whether there are easy escape routes off of these slopes and plan out or escape routes before entering into a slope in the back country.

Everyone in the group MUST be wearing an avalanche transceiver, carrying a shovel and probe and should have extra clothing for weather changes and an emergency shelter in the case that you are injured or lost and have to stay out the night. Winter days are cold in the mountains but much colder at night. Those sunny days that are so warm are the coldest nights as with no cloud cover heat is radiated up and out of the earth’s atmosphere.

This combination of warm day and cold, clear night also cause moisture to be sucked from the snow possibly causing faceted crystals within the snow pack. These crystals loose their bond with other layers and can cause a decrease in slope stability and thus produce more avalanche activity. You want to be aware of these processes at work and if you are serious about having fun and staying alive in the winter mountains you must know how to look for these clues to the slopes stability and calculate the risk for your self and friends.

If you are unsure as to whether you can do this you should think about enrolling into an avalanche awareness course. The mountains are a beautiful place and a force to respect. They are places that you can make the best of memories or they can become the place where you are last remembered. Play smart, play safe, and have fun out there!